Collaborative Research: Untangling the Changing Nature of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Driven Terrestrial Impacts

厄尔尼诺现象主要是由热带太平洋上一大片比平均温度高的水池确定的，这种水池持续了几个月。厄尔尼诺现象和其温度低于平均水平的拉尼娜现象通过改变大气环流模式来影响全球天气和气候。厄尔尼诺现象可以提前几个月预测，因此可以提供北美和世界其他人口稠密地区的预期天气和气候模式的早期图景。目前尚不清楚厄尔尼诺现象在未来气候中将如何变化，一些研究表明，厄尔尼诺现象将变得更强、更弱、或多或少会更加频繁，甚至厄尔尼诺现象将变得更加频繁，而拉尼娜现象则会减弱，等等。此外，未来的气候预计将变得更温暖、更潮湿，它将如何改变厄尔尼诺现象的影响，这一点还不确定。这项研究使用了一种复杂的计算机模型来模拟全球大气和海洋，以理清这些相互作用，并了解厄尔尼诺现象可能发生的不同变化如何反过来导致它们的影响发生变化。例如，如果未来的厄尔尼诺事件比目前的事件更强，北美地区的温度和降水模式在未来的气候中将如何变化？调查人员将系统地测试几种潜在的情景，揭示导致撞击变化的物理机制。这项研究还试图了解厄尔尼诺现象的影响是否会变得更可预测，还是更难预测，这取决于厄尔尼诺现象未来如何变化。这项研究的结果将有助于我们了解厄尔尼诺如何影响北美的天气和气候模式，以及气候变化下可以预期的情况。这项工作的更广泛影响集中在四个方面。研究与教育的结合：拟议的工作将培养两名研究生，结果将被整合到课堂材料中。公众宣传：将通过国家海洋和大气管理局关于厄尔尼诺现象的气候网博客促进公众宣传。社会影响：在目前的气候下，厄尔尼诺现象的影响是深远和高度影响的。拟议的工作将有助于通过更好地了解取决于厄尔尼诺现象统计数据和气候变化的可变性，从而更好地了解季节性气候预报的不确定性。本项目生命周期以外的数据使用：通过拟议的实验产生的结果不仅对厄尔尼诺现象的应用有用，而且还有助于理解厄尔尼诺现象和未来平均状态变化对其他气候变异性的影响。调查人员将与感兴趣的团体分享数据，以支持这些努力。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

El Niño is primarily identified by a large pool of warmer-than-average water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that persists for several months in a row. El Niño, and its cooler-than-average counterpart La Niña, affects global weather and climate by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. El Niño can be predicted several months in advance, and so can provide an early picture of expected weather and climate patterns over North America and other highly populated regions of the world. It is not yet clear how El Niño will change in a future climate, with some studies suggesting it will get stronger, weaker, more or less frequent, or even that El Niño will become more frequent while La Niña diminishes, and so on. Additionally, there is uncertainty about how the future climate, which is expected to be warmer and wetter, will alter El Niño impacts. This study uses a sophisticated computer model simulation of the global atmosphere and ocean to untangle these interactions and understand how different possible changes in El Niño in turn lead to changes in their impacts. For example, if future El Niño events are stronger than current ones, how do temperature and precipitation patterns over North America change in a future climate? The investigators will systematically test several potential scenarios, uncovering the physical mechanisms that cause the changes in impacts. This study also seeks to understand if El Niño impacts may become more predictable, or less predictable, depending on how El Niño changes in the future. The outcomes of this study will contribute to our understanding of how El Niño affects North American weather and climate patterns and what can be expected under climate change.The broader impacts of this work are centered in four areas. Integration of Research and Education: The proposed work will train two graduate students and results will be integrated into classroom materials. Public Outreach: Public outreach will be facilitated through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate.gov blog about El Niño. Societal Impacts: Under the current climate, El Niño’s impacts are far-reaching and highly impactful. The proposed work will contribute to improved understanding of the uncertainty in seasonal climate forecasts through a greater understanding of variability contingent on El Niño statistics and climate change. Data use beyond the lifetime of this project: The output generated via the proposed experiments will be useful not only for El Niño applications, but also for understanding how other climate variability is modulated by El Niño and future mean state changes. The investigators will share data with interested groups to support such efforts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.