Collaborative Research: BoCP Implementation: Using the Past to Predict the Future: How Physiology and other Functional Traits Determine Survival/Extinction in W. Atlantic Mollusks

蛤蜊和蜗牛，被称为软体动物，在美国东海岸丰富多样。它们是海洋健康的重要指标，并为人类提供大量食物来源。许多物种，或它们的近亲，也被称为300多万年前的化石。通过对现代和化石软体动物特征的分析，以及实验，该项目将调查软体动物的哪些特征使它们最有可能在过去几百万年海洋条件发生变化的情况下存活下来。这些信息将与计算机建模相结合，以预测未来哪些物种将存活下来，哪些将灭绝。将为K-12学生提供外展服务，并为不同层次的学生提供科学培训。将创建一个实体和在线的软体动物博物馆展览，有关它们的数据将在网上共享。这项工作将使用来自西大西洋地区的化石和现代软体动物来建立一个预测框架，预测哪些物种将在未来几个世纪存活下来，哪些物种将灭绝。这一点很重要，因为有几种物种为人类提供了重要的食物资源。这项工作将检查与物种长期生存相关的关键功能特征，包括受海洋条件强烈影响的代谢率等生理变量，以及在过去300万年中海洋软体动物灭绝概率的高度重要预测指标。实验研究也将进行，以确定软体动物的生理和海洋条件之间的关系。此外，生态位模型将用于将过去和预测的未来物种分布置于过去和预测的未来海洋条件的背景下。所有这些工作都是为了建立一个预测框架，以了解这一生物群的过去和量化未来。外展和教育将在几个地点提供给K-12学生。若干本科生、研究生和博士后将接受科研培训。将建立一个实体和在线的软体动物博物馆展览，软体动物物种的地层和地理分布数据将在网上共享。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Clams and snails, known as mollusks, are abundant and diverse along the eastern seaboard of the United States. They are important indicators of ocean health and provide substantial food sources for humans. Many of the species, or their close relatives, are also known as fossils that extend back more than 3 million years. Using analysis of the characteristics of modern and fossil mollusks, along with experiments, the project will investigate which features of mollusks made them most likely to survive as ocean conditions changed over the last several million years. The information will be combined with computer modelling to predict which species will survive and which will go extinct in the future. Outreach will be provided to K-12 students, and students at several levels will receive scientific training. A physical and online museum exhibit on mollusks will be created, and data about them will be shared online. The work will use fossil and modern mollusks from the western Atlantic region to develop a predictive framework for which species will survive and which will go extinct in the next few centuries. This is important because several species provide significant food resources to humans. The work will examine key functional traits associated with long term species survival, including physiological variables such as metabolic rate, which is strongly influenced by ocean conditions, and a highly significant predictor of extinction probability in marine mollusks over the last three million years. Experimental studies also will be performed to determine the relationship between mollusk physiology and ocean conditions. In addition, ecological niche modeling will be used to place past and predicted future species distributions in the context of past and forecasted future marine conditions. All this work will be done to develop a predictive framework for understanding the past and quantifying the future of this biota. Outreach and education will be provided to K-12 students in several locations. Several undergraduate and graduate students, and post-doctoral scholars will receive research training. A physical and online museum exhibit on mollusks will be created, and data on the stratigraphic and geographic occurrence of mollusk species will be shared online.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.