CIVIC-PG Track A: Codeveloping local flood thresholds and high tide flooding predictions with community science and innovative technology

海平面上升正在增加沿着缅因州3,500英里受潮汐影响的海岸线的涨潮洪水的频率，沿海社区迫切需要适应。近期和长期高潮洪水预测结合了联合收割机可靠的潮汐预测和当地观测，将水位与具体的洪水影响（“洪水阈值”）联系起来，作为社区适应日益增加的洪水风险的技术基础。然而，稀疏的验潮仪覆盖范围，不可靠的潮汐预测，以及缺乏基于观测的洪水阈值都构成了重大障碍，洪水适应规划在缅因州。缅因州湾研究所将与美国海港合作，领导一个由公民、社区和行业合作伙伴组成的团队，在缅因州三个沿海社区（波特兰、圣乔治和布斯贝）建立洪水阈值和改进潮汐预测的社会和技术基础设施。该项目中试行的低成本程序将为类似复杂海岸线的可复制做法提供信息，这些海岸线的海洋大气署验潮仪数据有限。在缅因州，本地化，共同开发的洪水灾害和脆弱性信息产生的这个项目将提供数据和参与基础的气候适应规划问题所面临的广泛的利益攸关方。该州的经济依赖于沿海基础设施，作为美国最偏远的州，缅因州沿海社区由于地处偏远、与中央规划机构隔绝、资源有限和贫困，面临着独特的适应挑战。因此，该项目满足了缅因州及其他地区沿海社区更有效地适应洪水的迫切需求。该研究项目的方法包括使用新兴的水位测量技术安装社区拥有的低成本验潮仪。公民和社区合作伙伴将确定安装仪表的优先领域。合作的大学科学家将进行用例场景，以评估水位数据产品的有效性（例如，潮汐预报和紧急警报），以满足社区的需要。研究人员还将在每个社区建立社区科学和教育计划，以收集以地理和时间为基准的洪水影响数据，这些数据可以与水位测量和激光雷达联系起来，用于制定当地的洪水阈值。最后，水位数据将用于定期计算谐波分量，生成改进的当地潮汐预测，并估计潮汐基准。在该项目的后续第二阶段提交中，第一阶段的工作为项目的快速启动和实施做好了准备，该团队将利用第一阶段建立的可扩展方法以及公民和社区伙伴关系，将其扩展到20个社区，并调整现有的统计方法，以制定涨潮洪水预测，并将其纳入社区规划活动。该项目是对公民创新挑战计划-轨道A的回应。生活在不断变化的气候中：该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Sea level rise is increasing the frequency of high tide flooding along the 3,500 miles of tidally influenced shoreline in Maine, and coastal communities face an urgent need to adapt. Near and long-term high tide flooding projections that combine reliable tide predictions and local observations that tie water levels to specific flood impacts (“flood thresholds”) serve as a technical foundation for community adaptation to increasing flood risk. However, sparse tide gauge coverage, unreliable tide predictions, and a lack of observation-based flood thresholds all pose significant barriers to flood adaptation planning in Maine. The Gulf of Maine Research Institute, in collaboration with US Harbors, will lead a team of civic, community, and industry partners in building social and technological infrastructure for establishing flood thresholds and improving tide predictions in three coastal Maine communities: Portland, St. George, and Boothbay. The low-cost processes piloted in this project will inform replicable practices in analogously complex coastlines with limited NOAA tide gauge data. Within Maine, localized, co-developed flood hazard and vulnerability information produced by this project will provide data and engagement foundational to climate adaptation planning questions faced by a broad array of stakeholders. The state’s economy relies on access to coastal infrastructure—and as the most rural state in the U.S.—Maine coastal communities face unique adaptation challenges due to their remoteness, isolation from central planning agencies, limited resources, and poverty. Consequently, this project fills a critical need for enabling more effective flood adaptation in coastal communities in Maine—and beyond. The approach in this research project involves installing community-owned, low-cost tide gauges using emerging water level measurement technologies. Civic and community partners will identify priority areas for installing the gauges. Collaborating university scientists will conduct use-case scenarios to evaluate the efficacy of the water level data products (e.g., tide predictions and emergency alerts) in meeting community needs. Researchers will also build community science and education programs in each community for collecting geo- and time-referenced photographic flood impact data that can be tied to water level measurements and LiDAR for the development of local flood thresholds. Finally, water level data will be used to periodically calculate harmonic constituents, generate improved local tide predictions, and estimate tidal datums. In the project’s follow-on Stage 2 submission of which this Stage 1 work prepares the project ready for quick initiation and implementation, the team will leverage the scalable methodology and civic and community partnerships built in Stage 1 to expand to 20 communities and adapt existing statistical methodologies for developing high tide flooding projections for integration into community planning activities. This project is in response to the Civic Innovation Challenge program—Track A. Living in a changing climate: pre-disaster action around adaptation, resilience, and mitigation—and is a collaboration between NSF, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Energy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.