SCC-IRG Track 1 Designing Smart, Sustainable Risk Reduction in Hazard-Prone Communities: Modeling Risk Across Scales of Time and Space

过去十年极端事件的指数性增加迫使在暴露于反复发生的自然灾害的社区中管理风险的新方法。该项目推进了美国国家科学基金会的目标，即通过整合数字孪生技术和社交游戏来启动和扩大集体学习能力，从而实现智能和互联社区。该项目建议通过重新分配注意力、时间、资源和克服障碍，使不同部门和管辖范围的决策者参与风险管理，以便在危险情况发生变化时采取集体行动。该项目将利用加州北部两个社区的野火威胁作为社区参与研究的地点。该项目将与13个社区合作伙伴合作，开发旧金山湾区的创新社会技术数字孪生兄弟，整合物理基础设施系统、社会/商业网络和保险机制的虚拟模型，这些机制可以在空间和时间上分配风险。严肃的游戏将被设计成激活游戏中固有的学习过程，以吸引社区的意识和对集体行动的承诺。该项目将使用复杂的系统方法，通过开发新一代社会技术数字孪生兄弟，将有形基础设施系统和虚拟通信网络的模型与社交游戏相结合，以调动社区利益攸关方对集体行动的认识和承诺，从而在多个风险等级上减少灾害。利用复杂适应系统的概念框架，该项目将调查注重认知和行动的社区学习过程是否会在短期内减轻野火风险，并在长期内导致对反复出现的风险条件的可持续适应。这项调查通过测试开发共享知识的原型社会技术框架来推进风险管理理论，以支持不同规模的多个行为者制定决策，以减少危险风险。社会技术数字孪生兄弟提供了区域范围内风险的宏观视角，以及微观尺度上相互作用的详细视角，这对管理运营至关重要。将风险信息转换为不同群体易于理解的格式，并在游戏场景中嵌入学习过程以促进风险降低，这是一种变革性的做法。一个主要目标是将视角从对极端事件发生后的反应转变为在危险发生之前预测风险和减少潜在损失。利用严肃的游戏，不同社区参与者的迭代学习过程提高了对风险的共同认知和对行动的承诺。该项目将吸引受影响地区代表性不足的少数民族参与，并支持弱势社区的决策者。该项目是对智能互联社区计划的响应。该奖项由推进的非正式STEM学习计划共同资助，该计划旨在推动对非正式环境中STEM学习的设计和开发的新方法和基于证据的理解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The exponential increase in extreme events over the last decade compels new methods of managing risk in communities exposed to recurring natural hazards. This project advances the National Science Foundation’s goal “Growing Convergence Research” to enable smart and connected communities by initiating and expanding collective learning capacity through integrating digital twin technologies and social games. This project proposes to engage decision makers across sectors and scales of jurisdiction in managing risk by reallocating attention, time, resources and overcoming barriers to act collectively as hazardscapes change. This project will use the threat of wildfire across two communities in northern California as community engagement study sites. Working with thirteen community partners, the project will develop an innovative sociotechnical digital twin of the San Francisco Bay Area that integrates virtual models of physical infrastructure systems, social/commercial networks, and insurance mechanisms that distribute risk over space and time. Serious games will be designed to activate learning processes inherent in play to engage community’s awareness and commitment to collective action. This project will use a complex systems approach to hazard reduction across multiple scales of risk by developing a new generation of socio-technical digital twin that integrates models of physical infrastructure systems and virtual networks of communication with social games to engage community stakeholders’ awareness and commitment to collective action. Using a conceptual framework of complex adaptive systems, this project will investigate whether community learning processes that focus on cognition and action will mitigate wildfire risk in the short-term and lead to sustainable adaptation to recurring risk conditions in the long-term. This inquiry advances risk management theory by testing a prototype sociotechnical framework for developing shared knowledge to support decision making by multiple actors at different scales to reduce hazard risk. The sociotechnical digital twin provides a macro view of risk at the regional scale, as well as detailed views of interactions at the micro scale, essential to manage operations. Translating risk information into formats that are easily understood by different groups and embedding learning processes in gaming scenarios to advance risk reduction is transformative. A major goal is to shift the perspective from reaction to extreme events after they occur to anticipation of risk and mitigation of potential losses before hazards occur. Using serious games, a process of iterative learning for diverse community actors increases the level of shared cognition of risk and commitment to action. The project will engage under-represented minorities in affected regions and support decision-makers in vulnerable communities.This project is in response to the Smart & Connected Communities program. It is co-funded by the Advancing Informal STEM Learning program which seeks to advance new approaches to, and evidence-based understanding of, the design and development of STEM learning in informal environments.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.