I-Corps: Context-specific scientific simulation models to mitigate wildfire risks

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The broader impact/commercial potential of this I-Corps project is the potential development of dynamic and community-oriented wildfire preparedness solutions for the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) areas, which constitute a third of US households. Current wildfire evacuation plans rely heavily on static zoning and often lack a regional or system-level perspective. These plans fall short when it comes to understanding and addressing practical challenges, such as the unpredictability of the wildfire progression, the general lack of awareness/collaboration by the residents, and the difficulty in communication and resource mobilization in emergency situations. By incorporating the dynamic elements as well as community efforts in the planning process, the proposed solution (software and service) aims at supporting government agencies at various jurisdiction levels (e.g., fire department, planning department, and offices of emergency services) in potentially safeguarding the WUI residents’ safety and properties, as well as possibly creating positive community images. Private sector companies such as insurance providers or large resorts also may benefit from the proposed solution to develop better services/products for their customers and increase company returns. Once validated in the wildfire sector, the proposed solution may be used to mitigate the losses of other natural disasters, such as hurricanes and earthquakes. This I-Corps project is based on the development of two core innovations: a suite of scientific simulation models that capture the holistic process of wildfire evacuations, as well as an advanced visualization platform that stimulates awareness-raising and bottom-up collaborations through hands-on experiences. On the modeling side, the integrated simulation framework captures the dynamics in wildfire evacuation through the inclusion of the wildfire progression, the organizational communication flow, and traffic evacuation sub-modules. The models are developed to be efficient and highly scalable, which helps to identify the evacuation bottlenecks beyond the boundary limits of a small jurisdiction or a single infrastructure type. On the visualization side, the results from the simulation module are converted to 3D animations, including the fire flames, traffic congestion, and communication disruptions. The simulation-visualization procedure enables endless scenarios to be generated and presented to the users, effectively facilitating the enhancements of the residents’ situational awareness and ensuring smoother two-way communications between the local community members and the wildfire management experts. The models and visualizations have been prototyped at various case study locations, showing the potential of possible improved preparedness through scientific and social innovations.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.