Technologies of Futuring: Computational Modeling Practices at the Intersection of Environmental Governance and Environmental Justice

在国家批准的环境治理项目中工作的技术专家和科学家越来越多地使用计算模型来完成多项立法授权。这些任务包括评估环境正义方面的监管行动，促使专家邀请历史上处于不利地位的群体参与环境情景建模。因此，建模实践可以调解环境正义问题是否以及如何在环境治理计划中得到体现和制定。然而，社会科学研究表明，这种调解做法可能会掩盖而不是揭示社会和文化差异，从而破坏变革的潜力。因此，有必要评估以模式为中介的参与是否以及如何导致国家驱动的、以正义为导向的环境治理计划的有力实施。本项目评估了加州模型驱动的脱碳计划。它探讨了为什么技术官僚使用环境建模工具进行调解，并关注参与的边缘化群体如何表达他们对更好的政治代表和社会认可的愿望。这个项目将有助于公众理解环境治理的技术科学模式，揭示社区和活动家的参与如何重塑国家的工具。该项目的见解将通过一个公共网站和报告分享，并将对政策制定者、环境正义活动家、社区团体、科学家和国家机构有用。该项目旨在通过一系列以脱碳为目标的能源、经济和环境模型，分析以正义为导向的参与的潜力。本研究将利用参与者观察、半结构化访谈以及与技术专家和活动家的广泛模型分析。指导这个项目的问题包括：1)当计算模型的输入和输出不能反映边缘化群体的需求时会发生什么？2)这些团体如何维护他们的知识，以确保脱碳计划的有力制定和实施？本研究的结果将会加强技术科学形式的环境正义与治理的公民参与理论。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Technocrats and scientists working in state-sanctioned programs for environmental governance increasingly use computational models to fulfill a plurality of legislative mandates. These mandates include assessing regulatory actions in terms of environmental justice, prompting experts to invite historically disadvantaged groups to participate in modeling environmental scenarios. Modeling practices are thus mediating whether and how environmental justice concerns are represented and enacted in environmental governance programs. However, social scientific research demonstrates that such mediation practices can obscure, rather than reveal, social and cultural differences, undermining the potential for transformative change. There is thus a need to evaluate whether and how model-mediated participation can lead to the robust implementation of state-driven, justice-oriented environmental governance programs. This project evaluates the case of California’s model-driven decarbonization plan. It examines why technocrats use environmental modeling tools for mediation and attends to how participating marginalized groups assert their desires for better political representation and social recognition. This project will contribute to the public understanding of technoscientific modes of environmental governance, shedding light on how community and activist participation can reshape the tools of the state. Insights from this project will be shared via a public website and report and will be useful to policymakers, environmental justice activists, community groups, scientists, and state agencies.The project aims to analyze the potential for justice-oriented participation through a cluster of energy, economic, and environmental models aimed at decarbonization. This study will draw on participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and extensive model analyses with technocratic experts and activists. Questions guiding this project include: 1) What happens when computational models' inputs and outputs cannot capture marginalized groups' needs? 2) How do these groups assert their knowledge to ensure robust development and implementation of decarbonization plans? Results from this study will enhance theories of civic participation in technoscientific forms of environmental justice and governance.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.