Collaborative Research: CAS-Climate: Reservoir dead pool in the western United States: probability and consequences of a novel extreme event

2021年，奥罗维尔大坝（加州）的645兆瓦电力因干旱导致“死池”（水库海拔太低无法发电）而在五个月内无法进入电网。2022年格伦峡谷大坝（科罗拉多）死池的预测促使重大水资源运营变化，以避免这一事件。然而，目前还没有答案的问题：在气候变暖的情况下，美国西部的大量电力生产能力由于死池而离线的概率是多少？这个问题的答案对脱碳电网有着根本性的影响，因为水电是一种低排放、可调度的能源，其运营灵活性有利于使用风能和太阳能等可变可再生能源。该项目将评估美国西部多个水库的同步死池条件的概率，并估计发电容量减少、持续时间和死池事件的频率。该项目将评估此类事件对可靠性故障、电力成本和空气污染排放的影响。该项目将调查大坝运营商如何应对死池风险，并评估这些调整的影响。与政策相关的研究成果将通过同行评审的期刊出版物、与大坝运营商的反复反馈以及与利益攸关方咨询委员会的持续合作来传播，以吸引水和能源管理人员和政策制定者。拟议的研究将具体评估：（1）在未来气候条件下广泛发生死池事件的概率，（2）这些事件对脱碳电网的后果，以及（3）水库管理修改以降低死池事件频率的可能性。这些研究成果将与大坝运营商和能源-水系统利益攸关方的持续合作相结合，共同产生科学成果，并提高水和能源管理人员的利用率。为了实现这些研究目标，该项目将采用基于过程的建模工具链，该工具链将第六次耦合模型相互比较（CMIP 6）中的现有降尺度气候数据、地表水文、河流路由和数据驱动的水库管理与电网模型结合起来，电网模型模拟容量扩张和每小时产量，沿着与大坝运营商进行定性访谈，以模拟管理适应。该项目由水文科学、环境可持续性和人类环境地理科学项目共同资助。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In 2021, 645 MW of power from Oroville Dam (California) were unavailable to the electric grid for five months due to drought conditions that resulted in “dead pool”—the condition at which reservoir elevations are too low to produce power. Projections of dead pool at Glen Canyon Dam (Colorado) in 2022 prompted major water resources operational changes to avoid this event. Yet there is currently no answer for the question: In a warming climate, what is the probability that large quantities of power production capacity in the western U.S. will go offline due to dead pool? The answer to this question has fundamental consequences for a decarbonizing grid, as hydropower is a low-emissions, dispatchable energy source whose operational flexibility facilitates the use of variable renewable energy, such as wind and solar. This project will evaluate the probability of synchronous dead pool conditions across multiple reservoirs in the western U.S. and produce estimates of the power capacity reduction, duration, and frequency of dead pool events. The project will evaluate the impacts of such events on reliability failures, electricity costs and air pollution emissions. The project will investigate how dam operators respond to dead pool risk, and evaluate the impacts of these adaptations. Policy-relevant research results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publications, iterative feedback with dam operators, and ongoing collaboration with a stakeholder advisory committee to engage water and energy managers and policy-makers. The proposed research will specifically evaluate: (1) the probability of widespread dead pool events in future climates, (2) the consequences of these events for decarbonizing electric grids, and (3) the potential for reservoir management modifications to reduce the frequency of dead pool events. These research products will be coupled with ongoing collaboration with dam operators and energy-water system stakeholders to co-produce scientific results and enhance their utilization by water and energy managers. To achieve these research objectives, the project will apply a process-based modeling toolchain that incorporates extant downscaled climate data from the sixth coupled model intercomparison (CMIP6), land surface hydrology, and river routing and data-driven reservoir management with electric grid models that simulate capacity expansion and hourly production, along with qualitative interviews with dam operators to allow simulation of management adaptations. This project is co-funded by the Hydrologic Sciences, Environmental Sustainability, and Human-Environmental & Geographical Sciences programs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.