RAPID: Model-based methods to understand and mitigate the risks posed by human monkeypox

这项研究将开发模型来了解和预测猴痘病毒（MPXV）的传播。2022年，猴痘病毒（MPXV）令卫生当局感到惊讶，因为它导致了快速增长的全球疫情，显然是通过性接触传播的。研究和干预工作的重点是通过有针对性的检测、疫苗接种、治疗和公共宣传活动来限制疫情的影响。然而，同时需要了解MPXV是否可以通过其他方式在更广泛的人群中大幅度传播。已在男性、女性和儿童中确认病例，这提出了关于MPXV传播的潜在范围和机制的重要问题。MPXV价差涉及的风险是什么，通过什么方式？如何降低MPXV流行范围扩大的风险？这些问题的答案将支持公共卫生规划和决策，并有助于减少正在进行的MPXV全球爆发的更广泛影响的风险，同时培训本科生，研究生和博士后学者。这项研究将解决三个主题领域：（一）它将开发技术来分析MPXV监测数据，并描述其传播效率，当病例出现在核心人群和非核心人群的有限传播。(2)它将建立和分析数学模型，以设计在这种核心/非核心传播情况下的疾病控制战略，例如，比较减少核心人群中的传播与减少非核心群体中的传入风险以及减少非核心社区中的传播的结果。(3)它将促进对正痘病毒传播生物学的了解，包括不同传播方式引起的风险、疫苗免疫对传播风险的影响以及新病毒株或物种引起的风险。在所有三个主题中，项目小组将进行基线研究，以推进方法和解决知识差距，并应用这些工具分析全球MPXV爆发的数据，以应对该项目是与疾病控制和预防中心合作资助的。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。

This research will develop models to understand and predict the spread of monkeypox virus (MPXV). In 2022, monkeypox virus (MPXV) surprised health authorities by causing a fast-growing global outbreak, apparently driven by transmission via sexual contact. Research and intervention efforts have focused on limiting the impacts of the outbreak via targeted testing, vaccination, treatment, and public information campaigns. However, there is a parallel need to understand whether MPXV could spread substantially in the broader population through other means. Cases have been confirmed in men, women and children, raising important questions about the potential scope and mechanism of MPXV spread. What is the risk involved in MPXV spread, and by what means? How can the risk of a more expansive MPXV epidemic be reduced? Answers to these questions will support public health planning and decision-making, and help to reduce the risk of wider impacts from the on-going global outbreak of MPXV, while training undergraduates, a graduate student, and a post-doctoral scholar.This research will address three thematic areas: (1) It will develop techniques to analyze MPXV surveillance data and characterize its transmission efficiency when cases arise from both substantial spread in a core population and limited spread in non-core populations. (2) It will build and analyze mathematical models to design strategies for disease control in such core/non-core transmission scenarios, e.g., to compare outcomes from reducing transmission in the core population versus reducing the risk of introduction to non-core groups versus reducing onward spread in non-core communities. (3) It will advance knowledge of orthopoxvirus transmission biology, including risks arising from different modes of transmission, implications of vaccine immunity for transmission risk, and risks arising from new viral strains or species. Across all three themes, the project team will conduct baseline research to advance methods and address knowledge gaps, and apply these tools to analyze data from the global MPXV outbreak in response to on-going developments in the outbreak.This project was funded in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.