Collaborative Research: Identifying Model Biases in Poleward Heat Transport--Atmosphere-Ocean Partitioning, Trends over the Historical Period and Sub-Seasonal Variability

大气中的风和海洋中的洋流将热量从赤道转移到极地，从而缓和了地球表面的温度。如果没有向极地的热量输送，热带地区将变得不适合居住，海冰将覆盖近一半的地球。未来向极热输送的变化依赖于耦合（大气/海洋）气候模式模拟，并对预计温度变化的空间结构产生重大影响。该项目将评估最先进的气候模式是否充分代表了负责向极地热量传输的关键物理过程。将通过在三个可观测的时间尺度上对向极热输送进行模型观测比较来进行研究。首先，在气候（长期平均）时间尺度上，将在模式和观测中比较大气和海洋之间向极地的热量输送的划分。第二，将把模型模拟的过去40年向极热输送的长期趋势与观测记录进行比较。最后，研究人员将评估气候模型是否足以代表导致热浪的大气热传输的每日变化。该项目将为本科生和研究生提供一个培训平台，并在当地开展外联活动，通过查明在可观测的时间尺度上造成全球尺度热量在气候系统中移动的过程中的模型偏差，改进气候模型的物理学。气候模式中的这些物理过程控制着未来长期的温度变化和变异，并对人类产生重大影响。此外，在气候系统中移动能量的大气运动也会移动水分，因此，项目结果也将改善未来对降雨和降雪变化的预测。最后，该项目直接解决模型是否充分代表导致热浪的大气过程。识别热浪根本原因的模型偏差将导致在变暖的世界中改善对区域热浪强度变化的预测。除了对本科生和研究生进行培训外，研究人员还将对与项目相关的科学概念进行公众宣传，以激发年轻一代的热情，提高公众对气候研究的认识。该项目由气候和大尺度动力学计划和大气和地球空间科学部共同资助，以支持提高研究能力的项目，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Winds in the atmosphere and currents in the ocean move heat from the equator to the pole thereby moderating temperatures over Earth’s surface. In the absence of poleward heat transport, the tropics would be uninhabitably warm and sea ice would cover nearly half the planet. Future changes in poleward heat transport rely on coupled (atmosphere/ocean) climate model simulations and have substantial impacts on the spatial structure of projected temperature changes. This project will evaluate if state-of-the-art climate models adequately represent key physical processes responsible for poleward heat transport. Research will be pursued through a model-observation comparison of poleward heat transport at three observable timescales. First, at climatological (long-term averages) timescales the partitioning of poleward heat transport between the atmosphere and ocean will be compared in models and observations. Second, the model simulated long-term trends in poleward heat transport over the last 40 years will be compared to the observational record. Last, the investigators will assess if climate models adequately represent the daily variability of atmospheric heat transport responsible for heat waves. The project will serve a platform for training undergraduate and graduate students and involve outreach activities at local venues.The project will improve the physics of climate models by identifying model biases in the processes responsible for the global scale movement of heat through the climate system at observable timescales. These same physical processes in climate models govern future long-term temperature change and variability with substantial human impact. Additionally, the atmospheric motions that move energy through the climate system also move moisture and, thus, the project results will also improve future predictions of rain and snowfall changes. Lastly, the project directly addresses if models adequately represent the atmospheric processes responsible for heat waves. Identifying model biases in the underlying causes of heatwaves will lead to improved predictions of regional heatwave intensity changes in a warming world. In addition to training undergraduate and graduate students, the investigators will perform public outreach on project-related science concepts to engender enthusiasm amongst younger generations and raise awareness of climate research among the general public.This project is jointly funded by the Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program and Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences to support projects that increase research capabilities, capacity and infrastructure at a wide variety of institution types, as outlined in the GEO EMBRACE DCL.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.