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CAREER: The Lapse Rate Feedback and Other Mechanisms of High-Latitude Climate Change

职业：高纬度气候变化的失效率反馈和其他机制

基本信息

批准号：
1753034
负责人：
Nicole Feldl
金额：
$ 79.82万
依托单位：
University of California-Santa Cruz
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-09-01 至 2024-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1753034&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
CAREER Lapse Rate Feedback Other

项目摘要

Model simulations of the warming effect of greenhouse gases typically show greater temperature increases over the polar caps than the rest of the globe. This "polar amplification" is consistent with the dramatic temperature increase seen in the Arctic, which has caused a variety of severe impacts on the human and natural systems of the region. Research on polar amplification is thus of practical as well as scientific interest, as the warming and thawing of the polar regions is poorly understood and difficult to predict yet has worldwide consequences.In the education and outreach component of this CAREER award the PI works with undergraduate students to develop computer games that can be used to introduce middle school students to environmental science. The work is based on research showing that appropriately designed games can be used to introduce students to scientific discovery, enticing them to probe a virtual world through formulating, testing, and reevaluating hypotheses. Games have been developed to foster scientific thinking in other disciplines including molecular biology and astrobiology. The work has educational broader impacts both for the broad audience of game players, many of whom may have limited interest in traditional STEM classwork, and for the cross-disciplinary team of undergraduate students who develop the game.The scientific focus of the project is the lapse rate feedback, in which changes in the way temperature varies with height affect the total amount of warming that occurs for a given increase in carbon dioxide (CO2). In the tropics the warming is top heavy, with greater temperature increases at upper levels, and the greater warming aloft helps the atmosphere cool to space more effectively to balance the heat trapping effect of the CO2. But the polar caps typically warm more near the surface, in part due to reductions in ice and snow cover which expose the darker land and sea surface below. This bottom heavy warming requires a greater temperature increase to balance the CO2 increase than would be required if the warming were distributed equally at all levels, thus it contributes to polar amplification.The logic of the polar lapse rate feedback is sound and the effect has been demonstrated in models, but the strength of the feedback is unclear. One consideration is that energy transport into the polar caps could work against bottom-heaviness given that much of the transport occurs aloft. But the net effect of energy transport is unclear as the transport of dry static energy is expected to decrease with warming while latent energy increases as the air becomes more moist. Low cloud changes due to near-surface warming may also reduce the warming effect of the polar lapse rate feedback. These effects are examined through simulations using a hierarchy of models at varying levels of complexity.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

对温室气体变暖效应的模型模拟通常显示，极冠地区的温度上升幅度大于地球仪的其他地区。这种“极地放大效应”与北极气温急剧上升相一致，这对该地区的人类和自然系统造成了各种严重影响。极地的变暖和融化目前还不为人所知，难以预测，但却具有全球性的影响。因此，极地放大的研究既有实际意义，也有科学意义。在该职业奖的教育和推广部分，PI与本科生合作开发电脑游戏，可用于向中学生介绍环境科学。这项工作是基于研究表明，适当设计的游戏可以用来向学生介绍科学发现，诱使他们通过制定，测试和重新评估假设来探索虚拟世界。游戏的开发是为了培养其他学科的科学思维，包括分子生物学和天体生物学。这项工作对游戏玩家的广大受众（其中许多人可能对传统的STEM课堂作业兴趣有限）和开发游戏的跨学科本科生团队都具有更广泛的教育影响。该项目的科学重点是失效率反馈，其中，温度随高度变化的方式的变化影响了二氧化碳（CO2）增加时发生的变暖总量。在热带地区，变暖是头重脚轻的，在高层温度上升更大，而更大的高空变暖有助于大气更有效地冷却到太空，以平衡二氧化碳的热捕获效应。但是极地冰盖通常在靠近地表的地方更温暖，部分原因是冰雪覆盖的减少，暴露了下面较暗的陆地和海洋表面。这种底部的严重变暖需要更大的温度增加来平衡CO2的增加，而不是在所有水平上均匀分布变暖所需的温度增加，因此它有助于极地放大。极地直减率反馈的逻辑是合理的，其效果已在模型中得到证明，但反馈的强度尚不清楚。一个考虑因素是，进入极冠的能量传输可能会对底部沉重产生影响，因为大部分传输发生在高空。但能量输送的净效应尚不清楚，因为干静态能量的输送预计会随着变暖而减少，而潜在能量会随着空气变得更加潮湿而增加。近地表变暖引起的低云变化也可能减少极地直减率反馈的变暖效应。这些影响是通过使用不同复杂程度的模型层次结构进行模拟来检查的。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（15）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Robust anthropogenic signal identified in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

对流层温度季节周期中确定的强大人为信号

DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0766.1
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
Journal of climate
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Santer, B. D.;Po-Chedley, S.;Feldl, N.;Fyfe, J. C.;Fu, Q.;Solomon, S.;England, M.;Rodgers, K. B.;Stuecker, M. F.;Mears, C.
通讯作者：
Mears, C.

Sea Ice Loss, Water Vapor Increases, and Their Interactions with Atmospheric Energy Transport in Driving Seasonal Polar Amplification

DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-23-0219.1
发表时间：
2023-08
期刊：
Journal of Climate
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Po-Chun Chung;N. Feldl
通讯作者：
Po-Chun Chung;N. Feldl

The Influence of Climate Feedbacks on Regional Hydrological Changes Under Global Warming

全球变暖下气候反馈对区域水文变化的影响

DOI：
10.1029/2023gl106648
发表时间：
2024
期刊：
Geophysical Research Letters
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Bonan, David B.;Feldl, Nicole;Siler, Nicholas;Kay, Jennifer E.;Armour, Kyle C.;Eisenman, Ian;Roe, Gerard H.
通讯作者：
Roe, Gerard H.

Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming

变暖对区域降水变化的贡献及其极地放大模式