RAPID: Naturalistic effects of landmark scientific reports on public beliefs and attitudes

科学证据对公众信仰和态度的影响还没有得到很好的理解。总的来说，先前的研究表明，接触科学信息可能会改变人们的事实信念，但可能不会对人们的观点或政策偏好产生相应的影响。本研究考虑了国际气候变化专门委员会具有里程碑意义的报告。IPCC的报告吸引了巨大的关注，但几乎没有实验证据表明它们对公众舆论的影响。本研究评估了接触报告的影响，目的是解决长期存在的难题，即科学证据对人们对两极分化问题的信念和态度的影响，以及这些影响如何随着人们接触到的证据的数量而变化。这些新知识将有助于改善有关气候变化的交流。本研究包括围绕2023年3月IPCC报告发布的多波实验。一些参与者被鼓励阅读IPCC报告及其发布后的新闻报道，而其他参与者则被鼓励阅读不相关的信息。该研究还检查了一部分参与者提供的匿名在线行为数据中对IPCC新闻和信息的暴露情况。该研究的这一部分将有关气候变化的信念和态度与IPCC报告的实验数据和其他在线行为联系起来。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The effects of scientific evidence on the public's beliefs and attitudes are not well understood. In general, prior research suggests that exposure to scientific information is likely to shift people's factual beliefs but may not have corresponding effects on people's opinions or policy preferences. This study considers the landmark reports of the International Panel on Climate Change. IPCC reports attract enormous attention, but little experimental evidence exists about their effects on public opinion. This study evaluates the effects of exposure to the report with the goal of resolving longstanding puzzles about the effect of scientific evidence on beliefs and attitudes regarding polarizing issues and how these effects vary by the quantity of evidence to which people are exposed. The new knowledge will contribute to improving communications regarding climate change. This study consists of a multi-wave experiment centered around the release of the March 2023 IPCC report. Some participants receive an incentive to read the IPCC report and news coverage of it in the period after its release, while other participants are encouraged to consume unrelated information. The study also examines exposure to IPCC news and information in anonymized online behavior data provided by a subset of participants. This component of the research links beliefs and attitudes concerning climate change both to the experimental data regarding exposure to the IPCC report and to other online behavior.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.