RAPID: The Prevalence and Causes of Conspiracy Beliefs about Disease Outbreaks

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Public health depends on the widespread availability of accurate scientific information. The proliferation of conspiracy theories and other misinformation about health, medicine, and science have therefore created a significant challenge for public health officials. These theories frequently persist despite clear evidence to the contrary and can even gain credibility as they circulate in public discourse and through social networks. Right now, a dangerous set of conspiracy theories about the ongoing Zika epidemic are circulating in Brazil, the center of the outbreak. Rumors and unsupported reports have blamed the mosquito-borne disease and the resulting surge in microcephaly on genetically modified mosquitoes, on larvicides, and on prenatal vaccines. The spread of these conspiracy theories could threaten public health efforts to prevent Zika across the world, including in Puerto Rico, where the U.S. has declared a public health emergency, and South Florida. Specifically, the dissemination of these claims threatens to dissuade people from protecting themselves against Zika; undermine efforts to enlist the public's help in preventing the spread of the disease; and reduce support for responses to the outbreak by public health officials. This project will study the prevalence of belief in conspiracy theories about Zika, the conditions under which people are most vulnerable to these claims, and the effectiveness of corrective information in debunking them. The project consists of a nationally representative survey in Brazil measuring who believes in these conspiracy theories and a survey experiment with an opt-in sample of Brazilians testing how feelings of control affect people's receptiveness to conspiracy theories and to corrective information. The first study consists of a module on a face-to-face survey in Brazil. These data allow the research team to conduct a detailed analysis of the prevalence of Zika conspiracy beliefs in Brazil and how those beliefs relate to factors such as demographics, disease incidence, Zika exposure, and political attitudes. The research team also examines how conspiracy beliefs relate to support for public health measures to stop the spread of the disease and respondents' intention to follow prevention recommendations. The second study tests the claim that feelings of a lack of control make people more vulnerable to conspiracy beliefs -- a theory that is especially relevant to understanding conspiracy theories about disease outbreaks. Feelings of a lack of control may facilitate belief in conspiracy theories about Zika and reduce the effectiveness of corrective information. The research evaluates this prediction using a large sample of online participants from a vendor that offers a diverse sample in Brazil.