RII Track-4:NSF: Improving subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of Central Pacific extreme hydrometeorological events and their impacts in Hawaii

这个研究基础设施改善轨道-4 EPSCoR研究员项目将提供奖学金的助理教授和培训的研究生在夏威夷大学。这项工作将与加州圣地亚哥大学斯克里普斯海洋学研究所西部天气和水极端事件中心的研究人员合作进行。预测极端天气事件对于安全、准备和基础设施规划至关重要，特别是在夏威夷等独特的地理环境带来重大挑战的地区。夏威夷的孤立位置增加了早期和准确预报的重要性，以促进及时的应急反应。该项目旨在通过了解该地区特定的气候复杂性，加强预测夏威夷州此类事件的科学。通过提高我们的预测能力，这一奋进不仅将推动科学研究，而且还将大大有助于夏威夷居民的福祉和安全，特别是社会经济上处于不利地位的社区，往往承受极端天气事件的冲击。该奖学金将通过支持建立长期的，与西部极端天气和水中心的长期合作。该项目的主要目标是加深对中太平洋季节内气候变化的了解，并为2周至6个月的极端水文气象事件开发一个亚季节到季节预报系统。在奖学金期间，这项合作旨在利用观测和再分析数据阐明马登-朱利安振荡对夏威夷水文气候的影响，并利用各种指标评估中太平洋S2 S预报的准确性。此外，还将通过缩小实时集合预报的规模，为夏威夷建立一个S2 S预报系统。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Research Infrastructure Improvement Track-4 EPSCoR Research Fellows project will provide a fellowship to an Assistant professor and training for a graduate student at the University of Hawaii. This work will be conducted in collaboration with researchers at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego. Forecasting extreme weather events is essential for safety, preparedness, and infrastructure planning, especially in regions like Hawaiʻi, where the unique geography poses significant challenges. Hawaiʻi’s isolated location increases the importance of early and accurate forecasts to facilitate timely emergency response. This project aims to strengthen the science of forecasting such events in Hawaiʻi by understanding the region’s specific climate complexities. By improving our forecasting capabilities, this endeavor will not only advance scientific research but will also contribute significantly to the well-being and safety of Hawaiʻi’s residents, especially socioeconomically disadvantaged communities that often bear the brunt of extreme weather events.This fellowship will support training opportunities for the PI in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting by supporting the establishment of a long-term collaboration with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes. The primary objectives of this project are to deepen the understanding of intraseasonal climate variability in the Central Pacific and to develop a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast system for extreme hydrometeorological events ranging from 2 weeks to 6 months. During the fellowship, this collaboration aims to clarify the impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Hawaiʻi’s hydroclimate using observational and reanalysis data, and to evaluate the accuracy of S2S forecasts in the Central Pacific using a variety of metrics. In addition, an S2S forecast system for Hawaiʻi will be created by downscaling real-time ensemble forecasts. This system could be used by forecasters and other stakeholders to support emergency planning.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.