Doctoral Dissertation Research: Human long term adaptation to prehistoric ENSO-driven flooding

这项博士论文研究考察了厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)产生的洪水的影响，以了解农业社区对极端环境变化的脆弱性。ENSO导致干旱沿海地区的降水发生变化，这可能会导致山洪暴发和严重破坏。这项研究强调，改变洪泛区的地形会使人们更难减少对洪水的暴露。洪水事件可能会改变地貌，以至于人们适应未来事件的能力受到限制。因此，必须更新有关如何适应这些事件的知识，以应对未来的潜在危险。社区必须不断地体验、观察和交流，因为他们在数百年和数千年的时间里适应了不断演变的泛滥平原条件。考古学非常适合研究这些适应河流灾害演变的过程。对古代聚落模式及其各自的洪泛区环境的关注揭示了社会如何通过寻找隆起的地区和建立适应洪水的基础设施来缓解潜在的洪水。对这些数据的解释为现代缓解工作提供了信息，因为洪水是一种持续的、动态的风险，世界各地的人口越来越多地经历这种风险。该跨学科项目包括两个部分：预测河流行为的综合水文模型和对过去洪水采样的沉积物进行的地质研究。该模型使用历史河流流量、地理空间数据、古气候重建和民族历史记录来确定ENSO洪水热点。此外，古河道和残留河床是陆上洪水的重要渠道和贡献者。考虑到它们在洪泛区地貌中的寿命，它们是过去和未来可能发生洪水的关键指标。研究人员研究了之前在一个河谷调查的650个考古遗址，以确定它们在泛滥平原和冲积扇中暴露在不断增加的ENSO洪水强度中。该小组利用地球物理和地球化学方法评估古河道中的土壤特征，以确定洪水对岸边景观的长期稳定性和初级生产力的影响。利用多种调查洪水的方法，该项目有助于考古方法和有关洪水风险、水资源管理和土地利用的理论，以探索过去的人与环境的相互作用。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This doctoral dissertation research examines the impact of flooding generated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to understand the vulnerability of agricultural communities to extreme environmental variability. ENSO causes shifts in precipitation in arid coastal areas which can cause flash flooding and severe damage. This study emphasizes how changing floodplain morphology can make it more difficult for people to reduce their exposure to these floods. Flood events can alter the landscape to the extent that peoples’ capabilities to adapt to future events are limited. Consequently, knowledge about how to adapt to these events must be updated to deal with future potential hazards. Communities must continuously experience, observe, and communicate as they adjust over centuries and millennia to evolving floodplain conditions. Archaeology is well-suited to examine these processes of adapting to the evolution of river hazards. Attention to ancient settlement patterns and their respective floodplain environments reveals how societies mitigated potential flooding by finding elevated areas and generating flood-adapted infrastructure. Interpretations of this data inform modern mitigation efforts as flooding is an ongoing, dynamic risk experienced increasingly by populations worldwide. The interdisciplinary project consists of two parts: integrated hydrologic modeling to predict river behavior and a geological study of sediment sampled from past floods. The model uses historic stream flows, geospatial data, paleoclimatic reconstructions, and ethnohistoric accounts to determine ENSO flood hotspots. Additionally, paleochannels and remnant riverbeds are significant conduits of and contributors to overland flooding. Given their longevity in floodplain geomorphology, they serve as critical indicators for where past and future flooding might occur. Researchers study 650 previously surveyed archaeological sites in a single river valley to determine their exposure to increasing ENSO flood magnitudes in the floodplain and alluvial fan. The team utilizes geophysical and geochemical methods to evaluate soil characteristics in paleochannels to ascertain the impacts of flooding on the long-term stability and primary productivity of bankside landscapes. Leveraging multiple approaches to investigating flooding, this project contributes to archaeological methods and theories regarding flood risk, water resource management, and land use to explore past human-environment interactions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.