Drought Forecast and Water Management System for the semi-arid region of the state of Ceara, Brazil

这一知识转移项目建议的目的是使以前两个由dfg资助的研究项目所产生的知识和科学成果可用于水管理和规划。该项目的特别应用重点将是将这些研究项目的方法和结果转移到干旱预报和管理系统中，以便将来使用。提到的两个项目是：大型半干旱集水区的沉积物输出：测量和模拟；大型旱地集水区水和悬浮沉积物的产生、运输和保留：通量和连通性现象的监测和综合模拟。该项目的应用合作伙伴是巴西东北部塞阿拉州气象和水资源基金会（FUNCEME），该基金会还负责塞阿拉水文系统的水文气象预测，该系统的特点是气候水呈强烈负平衡，并拥有数千个（大多数是小型）水库。我们打算将FUNCEME现有的水管理和分配信息系统SIGA与基于过程的水文模型WASA-SED结合起来。上述DFG项目产生的WASA-SED模型是专门为半干旱中尺度集水区开发的，作为调查水文通量的工具，包括河流系统和水库中的运输和连通性现象。应用挑战将在几个层面上得到解决：(1)将WASA-SED模型与siga系统集成，使水务部门能够直接有效地了解水库水位、河流流量和其他区域水资源；(2)为广泛的利益攸关方群体有效地通报水文储量和通量的结果，并使其能够得到进一步利用；(3)利用WASA-SED进行预报，即结合短期和季节气象预报，预测不同提前期的可用水量，并描述相关的不确定性；(4)利用面向过程的WASA-SED方法，评价动态环境条件对水资源有效性的影响，特别是规模变化较大的水库密集网络的影响。在该模型的过程链中，以应用为导向的水基础设施和管理的整合有望对新的科学问题提供反馈：(1)评估和模拟半干旱河流系统中传输损失的季节性动态，并在这种边界条件下推导出适当的河流路线方法。(2)在复杂的人工水文系统中进行水文和沉积连通性的量化和建模，该系统包括许多大小水库、水转位结构和部分连通的子盆地。

This proposal for a Knowledge Transfer Project aims at making the knowledge and scientific results generated in two earlier DFG-funded research projects available for applications in water management and planning. The particular application focus of this project will be to transfer the methods and results from those research projects for future use in a Drought Forecasting and Management System. The two projects referred were: Sediment Export from large Semi-Arid catchments: Measurements and Modelling, and Generation, transport and retention of water and suspended sediments in large dryland catchments: Monitoring and integrated modelling of fluxes and connectivity phenomena. The application partner in this project is the Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources of Ceara State in NE-BRAZIL (FUNCEME), who is also in charge for hydro-meteorological predictions of Ceara's hydro-system characterized by a strongly negative climatic water balance and several thousand (mostly small) reservoirs. We intend to combine the existing information system for water management and allocation SIGA from FUNCEME with the process based hydrological model WASA-SED. The WASA-SED model, which resulted from the mentioned DFG projects, was developed specifically for semi-arid meso-scale catchments as a tool for investigating hydrological fluxes, including transport and connectivity phenomena in the river system and reservoirs. The application challenge will be addressed on several levels: (1) Integrating the WASA-SED model with the SIGA-system in order to enable water authorities a direct and efficient insight in reservoir levels, river flow, and other regional water resources; (2) Efficiently communicate the results of hydrological stocks and fluxes for a wide range of stakeholder groups and enable further use of those; (3) Using WASA-SED in a forecast mode, i.e. combine it with both short-term and seasonal meteorological forecasts to predict water availability with different lead times and to describe the associated uncertainty; (4) Taking advantage of the process-oriented type of WASA-SED to assess effects of dynamic environmental conditions on water availability, in particular the effects of the dense network of reservoirs of highly varying sizes. Feedbacks to new scientific questions are expected from the application-oriented integration of water infrastructure and management in the process chain of the model: (1) Assessing and modelling the seasonal dynamics of transmission losses in semi-arid river systems and deriving an adequate approach for river routing under such boundary conditions. (2) The quantification and modeling of hydrological and sedimentological connectivity in a complex, man-made hydro system, comprising, e.g. many small and large reservoirs, water transpositions structures, and partially connected sub-basins.