Influence of Short-Term Dynamics of Renewable Energy Sources on Power Grid Stability

能源政策的变化要求电网有新的结构。可再生能源份额的增加导致了上网电量的更大波动。减少传统发电厂的同步发电机将削弱对电力供应稳定至关重要的二次备用。到目前为止，可再生能源的动态还没有得到很好的描述。有必要从根本上更好地理解这种动态及其对未来电网稳定性的影响。在本项目中，研究了风能和太阳辐射的短期功率波动对电网稳定性的影响。初步结果表明，这些短时间波动有损于非高斯、厚尾分布，从而导致极端事件的概率更高。通过对各种数据集的广泛统计分析，应建立考虑间歇性行为和相关性的可再生能源随机动态的非参数模型。这个模型随后被用来研究电网的稳定性，其方法借鉴了复杂系统统计物理领域的方法。

The changed energy policy requires new structures of electrical powergrids. Increasing shares of renewable energy sources cause higherfluctuations for the fed-in electricity. Reducing synchronousgenerators of traditional power plants will weaken the second reservesthat are essential for the stability of the power supply. Thestochastic dynamics of renewable power sources are up to now not wellcharacterized. There is need to achieve a better fundamentalunderstanding of this dynamics and its consequences for the stabilityof future power grids. In this project the impact of short-time powerfluctuations of wind and solar irradiance on grid stability isstudied. Preliminary results show that these short-time fluctuationsexhibit non-Gaussian, fat-tailed distributions, which lead to a muchhigher probability of extreme events. By an extensive statisticalanalysis of various data sets, a non-parametric modeling of thestochastic dynamics of renewable energy sources shall be developedthat takes into account intermittent behavior and correlations. Thismodeling is subsequently used to investigate power grid stabilitiesbased on methods borrowed from the field of the statistical physics ofcomplex systems.