Statistical postprocessing and stochastic physics for ensemble predictions (C07)

集合预报旨在量化未来天气数值预报中的不确定性。我们将开发依赖于制度的统计后处理方法，并评估随机物理参数化与预测模型演化状态相互作用的影响。结果将是对两种方法在德国及邻近地区降水集合预报中的价值和相对优点进行前所未有的比较量化。

Ensemble forecasts seek to quantify uncertainty in numerical predictions of future weather. We will develop regime-dependent statistical postprocessing methods, and in addition assess the effects of stochastic physics parametrizations that interact with the evolving state of the forecast model. The result will be an unprecedented comparative quantification of the value and relative merits of the two approaches in ensemble forecasts of precipitation over Germany and adjacent areas.