The Etesian wind system and energy potential over the Aegean Sea; Past, present and future

该项目的目的是研究过去110年来爱琴海上埃提斯风系统的自然变化，利用CORDEX预测在不同RCP情景下评估其未来（2010-2049）的变异性，并估计未来风能生产的潜力。该提案的主要目的是研究爱琴海（希腊大陆和土耳其之间）上的埃提斯风系统的自然变异性和可预测性，以及未来风能生产的潜力。拟议的工作将包括使用新发布的改进版本v2c的20世纪再分析和ECMWF的第一个20世纪大气再分析，比以前可能的更长的时间（1900-2010）对Etesians进行分析。本文将利用各种复杂的多元统计和新颖的聚类方法，研究欧洲-大西洋-亚洲地区大尺度大气环流与爱琴海区域风场在不同时间尺度上的关系。此外，还将评估区域气候模式（RCM）在协调区域降尺度实验（CORDEX）欧洲分支的历史模拟在模拟Etesians中的表现及其复制1971-2000年观测到的变率、趋势和大尺度环流的能力。模拟结果将与来自希腊大陆、爱琴海和土耳其西海岸的再分析数据集和每日观测测量结果进行验证。本文将在CORDEX预估中对21世纪上半叶两个代表性浓度路径8.5和4.5下的未来Etesian风变率进行评估。最后，将评估未来爱琴海地区的风能潜力，以确定爱琴海地区风力涡轮机应用的合适风能潜力。

The aim of this project is to investigate the natural variations of the Etesian wind system over the Aegean Sea over the past 110 years, assess its future (2010-2049) variability using CORDEX projections under different RCP scenarios and estimate the future potential for wind energy production. The main aim of this proposal is to investigate the natural variability and predictability of the Etesian wind system over the Aegean Sea (between mainland Greece and Turkey) and the potential for wind energy production in the future. The proposed work will include the analysis of the Etesians over a longer period (1900-2010) than previously possible using the newly-released improved Version v2c of the 20th Century Reanalysis and the ECMWF's first atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century. The relationship between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic-Asian area and the regional wind field over the Aegean on different time scales will be studied using a variety of sophisticated multivariate statistics and novel clustering approaches. Further, the performance of Regional Climate Model (RCM) historical simulations of the European branch of Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in simulating Etesians and their ability to replicate the observed variability, trends and the large scale circulation for the period 1971-2000 will be evaluated. The simulated results will be validated against reanalysis datasets and daily observational measurements from the mainland Greece, the Aegean Sea and the western coast of Turkey. An assessment of future Etesian wind variability in the CORDEX projections under the two Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 and 4.5 for the first half of the 21st century will be provided. Finally, the future Etesians wind energy potentials will be assessed in order to identify the areas that have suitable wind energy potential for wind turbine applications over the Aegean.