Home ownership and the housing market in an ageing society - A stochastic simulation study

特别是在一个老龄化社会，住房消费和住房财富具有重要的经济和社会影响。在整个生命周期中，住房消费和拥有住房的比例稳步增长，直到退休。因此，年龄结构的变化对住房需求和住房拥有率有直接影响。由于自有住房者通常比租房者储蓄更多，房屋拥有率的上升会促进资本积累和经济增长。此外，它还提供针对长期护理和长寿风险的保险。因此，特别是老龄化社会应该以有效的住房市场和高比例的房主为目标。然而，在西方工业化国家，住房拥有率差别很大，从德国的44%到西班牙的82%不等。这种差异不可能是由财富差异造成的，因为德国的老年家庭比西班牙的老年家庭富裕得多。因此，重要的因素似乎是人口结构、税收和住房政策以及抵押贷款市场的差异。目前的项目旨在开发一个世代重叠的模拟模型，以便分离影响个人租住权决策的核心因素，以及不同政策工具对住房市场、个人福利和效率的影响。出发点是Chambers、Garriga和Schlangenhauf（2009）的现有研究，他们用动态队列模型分析了住房市场、政府和社会之间的相互作用。在工作期间，个人面临收入的不确定性，进入退休后，他们无法承担长寿风险。目前的项目打算将以前的工作扩展到三个方向。首先，我们将实现长期均衡之间的过渡路径，以考虑代际福利效应和总经济效率。其次，引入长期护理和健康风险，分析老年住房的保险性质。第三，我们将分解经济的供给侧，以便量化住房政策的部门扭曲。

Especially in an ageing society housing consumption and housing wealth have important economic and social implications. Over the life cycle housing consumption and the share of home owners grows steadily until retirement. Consequently, changes in the age structure have a direct effect on the housing demand and home ownership. Since typically homeowners save more than renters, rising home ownership increases capital accumulation and economic growth. In addition it also provides an insurance against long term care and longevity risk. Consequently, especially ageing societies should aim for an efficient housing market and a high share of homeowners. However, in Western industrialized countries the shares of home ownership differ significantly, ranging from 44 percent in Germany up to 82 percent in Spain. This difference can't be due to differences in wealth, since elderly German households are significantly wealthier than their Spanish counterparts. Therefore important factors seem to be differences in demographic structures, taxation and housing policies and mortgage markets.The current project aims to develop a simulation model with overlapping generations which allows to isolate the central factors affecting individual tenure decision as well as the impact of different policy instruments on housing markets, individual welfare and efficiency. Starting point are existing studies by Chambers, Garriga and Schlangenhauf (2009) which analyze the interaction between housing markets, government and society with a dynamic cohort model. During working years individuals are facing income uncertainty and after entering retirement they cannot cover longevity risk. The current project intends to extend previous work into three directions. First, we will implement a transition path between long run equilibria in order to account for intergenerational welfare effects and aggregate economic efficiency. Second, we introduce long term care and health risks, in order to analyze the insurance properties of housing in old age. Third, we will disaggregate the supply side of the economy in order to quantify sectoral distortions of housing policies.