Housing Price Risk, Home Ownership, and Wealth

房价风险、房屋所有权和财富

• 批准号: 7065727
• 负责人: James Patrick Smith
• 金额: $ 30.05万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-05-15 至 2010-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7065727
• 关键词: Canada; Europe; United States; aging; consumer product; cost effectiveness; data collection methodology /evaluation; decision making; generation difference; geographic difference; health; household; housing; human data; human population dynamics; human population study; income; life cycle; mathematical model; model design /development; retirement; social model; socioeconomics

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In this project, we will test the effects of housing price risk on housing choice and wealth accumulation. Our model predicts that people who live in areas or countries with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, should have less steep housing consumption profiles, and should hold less equity in risky assets such as stocks. We will extend this model to incorporate two additional types of important risks individuals face-- income risk, which is concentrated in the younger phases of the life cycle; and health risk, which is more relevant at older ages. We will also extend our model into the older stages of the life cycle, so that we can examine both theoretically and empirically whether people are willing to downsize to fund their retirement consumption and how this decision is affected by volatile house prices. Finally, we will extend our work to four additional countries--Spain, Italy, Germany, and Canada--that vary considerably in patterns of home ownership and in housing price risk. We will continue to investigate the impact of capital gains in stocks and housing on consumption and savings. Using data from the US and UK, we will be particularly concerned with whether these 'wealth effects' on consumption and savings varied across different types of assets and the extent to which these estimated effects can explain the long-term swing in household savings rates.

描述（申请人提供）：在这个项目中，我们将测试房价风险对住房选择和财富积累的影响。 我们的模型预测，生活在房价风险较高地区或国家的人们应该在更年轻的时候拥有第一套房子，应该住在更大的房子里，应该有不太陡峭的住房消费状况，并且应该持有更少的股票等风险资产。 我们将扩展这个模型，纳入个人面临的另外两种重要风险：收入风险，集中在生命周期的年轻阶段；和健康风险，这在年龄较大时更为相关。我们还将把我们的模型扩展到生命周期的较老阶段，以便我们可以从理论上和实证上检验人们是否愿意缩小规模来为退休消费提供资金，以及这一决定如何受到房价波动的影响。最后，我们将把我们的工作扩展到另外四个国家——西班牙、意大利、德国和加拿大——这些国家的住房拥有模式和房价风险差异很大。 我们将继续研究股票和住房资本收益对消费和储蓄的影响。利用美国和英国的数据，我们将特别关注不同类型资产对消费和储蓄的“财富效应”是否有所不同，以及这些估计的效应在多大程度上可以解释家庭储蓄率的长期波动。