Does a Minimum Wage Boost Automation and Outsourcing?

拟议的研究项目分析了企业和工人为应对引入最低工资而进行的长期调整。我们的研究项目的动机是最近的技术进步，使企业能够用相对便宜的资本替代劳动力，或将生产步骤外包给更具成本效益的公司。然而，人们对最低工资政策如何影响企业的资本密集度和生产组织，以及对这些企业雇用的工人的工资和就业的后果仍然知之甚少。为了在这方面取得进展，我们使用了德国自20世纪90年代以来引入行业最低工资所引起的变化。结合来自社会保障记录的丰富的公司和工人层面的数据，我们使用详细的行业分类来识别所涵盖行业的公司和工人。然后，我们的经验策略将匹配与差异中的差异方法相结合。我们将首先为每个覆盖公司（或工人）匹配一个控制公司，该公司在采用前几年在人口或职业结构，资本密集度和利润方面与覆盖公司相似，但没有采用最低工资。为了确定最低工资政策对资本密集度，生产组织和工资或就业结构的影响，我们比较了引入最低工资后几年覆盖和未覆盖企业的结果。我们的分析旨在回答五个问题：1）引入最低工资后，所涵盖行业的企业是否会变得更加资本密集或外包生产步骤？2)我们观察到这些变化主要是在新的公司或在现有的公司在所涵盖的行业？3)最低工资是否会导致非例行任务工作取代例行任务工作？4)工人是否更有可能从所涵盖行业的常规工作转向非常规工作;或者他们更有可能完全离开最低工资行业？5)哪些员工受这些变化的影响最大？我们的研究结果通过关注企业在技术和生产组织方面的长期调整，而不是大部分文献关注的短期就业影响，为最低工资的研究做出了贡献。我们的研究通过分析投入价格的相对变化是否有利于离岸活动，资本投资或在所涵盖行业执行非常规任务的工作。因此，我们提出的研究有助于一个长期存在的争论，即新技术是否可以取代当前工作的很大一部分。最后，我们的研究具有重要的政策意义。最低工资通常是为了减少不平等或支持所谓的公平收入。然而，慷慨的最低工资可能会引发采用节省劳动力的技术，这实际上可能会增加而不是减少不平等。

The proposed research project analyzes the long-run adjustments of firms and workers in response to the introduction of a minimum wage. Our research project is motivated by recent technological advances which allow firms to substitute labor with relatively cheaper capital or outsource production steps to more cost-efficient firms. Yet, little is still known how minimum wage policies affect firms capital intensity and their organization of production, as well as the consequences for wages and employment of workers employed in those firms. To make progress in this direction, we use the variation induced by the introduction of industry-specific minimum wages in Germany since the 1990s. Combining rich firm- and worker-level data from social security records, we use detailed industry classifications to identify firms and workers in the covered industries. Our empirical strategy then combines matching with a difference-in-difference approach. We will first match for each covered firm (or worker) a control firm which in years prior to the adoption was similar to the covered firm in terms of the demographic or occupational structure, capital intensity and profits, but where the minimum wage was not adopted. To identify the effect of the minimum wage policy on capital intensity, the organization of production and the wage or employment structure, we then compare outcomes in covered and uncovered firms in the years after the introduction of the minimum wage. Our analysis seeks to answer five questions: 1) Do firms in covered industries become more capital-intensive or outsource production steps after the introduction of the minimum wage? 2) Do we observe these changes mostly among new firms or among incumbent firms in the covered industries? 3) Does a minimum wage lead to substitution of routine-task jobs by non-routine task jobs? 4) Are workers more likely to move from routine jobs to non-routine jobs within the covered industries; or are they more likely to leave the minimum wage industries altogether? 5) Which workers are most affected by these changes? Our findings contribute to the research on minimum wages by focusing on firms long-run adjustments in technology and the organization of production - rather than the short-run employment effects that much of the literature has focused on. Our research further adds to the RBTC and offshoring literature by analyzing whether a relative shift in input prices favors offshoring activities, capital investments or jobs performing non-routine tasks in covered industries. As such, our proposed research contributes to a long-standing debate whether new technologies may substitute for a substantial share of current jobs. Finally, our research has important policy implications. Minimum wages are often introduced to reduce inequality or support a so-called fair income. And yet, generous minimum wages may trigger the adoption of labor-saving technologies which may actually increase inequality rather than reduce it.