北大西洋及び北極海での温帯低気圧による沿岸災害の将来予測

在本财政年度，研究活动主要集中在测试北极研究区域内建立的大气和水动力模型。使用了不同程度的模型域(从更大和更粗糙的模拟域向更小和更精细的分辨率域缩小)。到目前为止，1999年9月极端风暴的结果在所考虑的2050年气候变化条件下表现出不同的反应。表明有必要进一步改进北极地区使用的数值方法。正如最初预期的那样，北极地区缺乏观测数据(如风场、海浪和风暴引起的海平面变化)，使模型的准确性验证和校准变得复杂。虽然其他建模后播数据可以作为参考点，但反映和捕捉真实世界的情况仍然不理想。然而，在某些情况下，使用卫星数据产品可以作为一种潜在的解决办法。此外，已经确定，以前使用的方法需要主要从未来地面和大气热角度对北极地区进行调整。需要在模型设置中更好地反映北极地区未来的热变化(例如，需要调整缺少海冰的海洋温度，以反映潜在的现实情况)。到目前为止，这项研究一直使用CMIP5模型(RCP4.5和RCP8.5场景)，但正在考虑迁移到最新的CMIP6模型。

In this fiscal year the research activities largely focused on testing the atmospheric and hydrodynamic modelling setup within the Arctic study area. Various extent of modelling domains have been used (downscaling from larger and rougher simulation domains to smaller and finer resolution domains). The results so far for the 1999 September extreme storm showed varied response under the considered climate change conditions for 2050. Showing the need to further improve numerical method used in the Arctic region. As initially expected, the lack of observed data availability (such as wind field, waves and storm induced sea level variations) within the Arctic complicated the model accuracy verification and calibration. While other modelling hindcast data could be used as a reference point, it is still not ideal to reflect and capture the real-world situation. However, using satellite data products can act in some cases as a potential workaround. In addition, it has been identified that the previously used method needs adjustment for the Arctic region mainly from the future surface and atmospheric thermal perspective. The future thermal changes in the Arctic region need to be better represented in the model setup (e.g. the ocean temperature under lack of sea ice needs to be adjusted to reflect the potential reality). The research has so far been using CMIP5 models (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios), however it is under consideration to migrate over to the latest CMIP6 models.