Transitions within Democracy: Institutions, Interests, and Accountability

我完成了这个研究项目的一个重要组成部分，即对1970年至2020年间98个民主国家民主倒退的原因进行全球分析。分析是基于匹配的方法来推断的因果关系的几个思想和制度因素有关的高管。研究结果表明，民粹主义倾向的高管增加，平均而言，民主倒退的量。虽然之前的案例研究和区域分析已经指出民粹主义对民主的决定性影响，但这是第一个以严格的经验证据支持这些主张的全球分析。基于这项研究，我与人合著了一篇研究论文，题为《谁是民主倒退的罪魁祸首：民粹主义者、总统还是占主导地位的高管？》与我的研究合作者Antonio Benasaglio Berlucchi（早稻田大学政治学研究生院）。我在2022年4月的中西部政治科学协会会议上和2022年5月的斯坦福大学民主、发展和法治中心上发表了这篇论文。我们于2022年8月将该论文提交给《民主化》杂志进行审查，并于2023年3月被接受发表。 民主化的影响因子为3.339，被学者和实践者认为是目前关于民主倒退研究的主要出路。

I completed one important component of this research project which is a global analysis of the causes of democratic backsliding in 98 democratic countries between 1970 and 2020. The analysis is based on matching methods to infer the causal effects of several ideological and institutional factors related to executives. The findings demonstrate that populist orientations of executives increase, on average, the amount of democratic backsliding. While case studies and regional analyses have previously pointed to populism’s determinantal effect on democracy, this is the first global analysis to support these claims with rigorous empirical evidence.Based on this research, I co-authored a research paper titled “Who’s to blame for democratic backsliding: populists, presidents or dominant executives?” with my research collaborator, Antonio Benasaglio Berlucchi (Graduate School of Political Science, Waseda University). I presented this paper at the Midwest Political Science Association meeting in April 2022 and at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law in May 2022. We submitted the paper for review in August 2022 to the journal Democratization and it was accepted for publication in March 2023. Democratization has an impact factor of 3.339 and is known among scholars and practitioners as a leading outlet for current research on democratic backsliding.