Constraining future Antarctic ice loss with the coupled ice-ocean model PISM-FESOM

设想的项目的目标是建立一个相互耦合的冰-海洋模式系统，能够在水平尺度上解决南极洲及其周围长达1公里的动态过程。南极冰盖的响应时间尺度比气候变化的时间尺度更长。由于冰盖成分从来不是平衡的，它需要一个高分辨率的旋转程序，提供当今南极冰盖的现实形态，同时解释由于对上一次冰川周期期间气候条件的延迟反应而造成的长期漂移。我们将进行与未来气候强迫相结合的模拟，这将在百年时间尺度上估计南极冰盖对未来海平面的贡献，该时间尺度受到能量守恒的限制，并包括上一次冰川周期的漂移。耦合的PISM-FESOM模型将使我们能够评估在冰盖的动态响应下，单向模拟中所预测的大规模暖水流入是否真实。将特别关注作为冰和海洋之间主要接触界面的漂浮冰架的脆弱性。

The target of the envisaged project is an interactively coupled ice-ocean model system capable of resolving dynamic processes in and around Antarctica on a horizontal scale of up to 1km. The Antarctic ice sheet responds on timescales that are longer than those of climate variability. As it is never in equilibrium, the ice-sheet component requires a high-resolution spin-up procedure that provides a realistic configuration of the present-day Antarctic Ice Sheet and at the same time accounts for the long-term drift as delayed response to the climate conditions during the last glacial cycles. We will perform coupled simulations with future climate forcing, which will provide estimates of the future sea level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet on centennial time scales that are constrained by the conservation of energy and include the drift from the last glacial cycles. The coupled PISM-FESOM model will allow us to assess whether large-scale warm water inflow as projected in uni-directional simulations is realistic under the dynamic response of the ice sheet. Particular focus will be given to the vulnerability of the floating ice shelves, which act as the main contact interface between ice and ocean.