Islamistic radicalization within prison settings: Risk patterns and trajectories

鉴于极端主义暴力行为在全球范围内的增加，本项目调查了年轻成年囚犯中普遍存在的有利于激进化的态度，以及德国监狱系统如何调停这种态度。需要进行犯罪学研究，为查明监禁期间的激进主义趋势和有效防止这些趋势的巩固提供指导。然而，迄今为止，人们对激进化背景下的潜在机制和相关因素知之甚少。同样，缺乏关于监狱环境中相关风险潜力程度的经验研究结果。因此，该项目旨在根据Kruglanski(2014)的模式，定量和定性地评估表明个别激进化过程或可能解释其形成的风险标准的普遍性。此类风险标准包括：传记特征、个人变量、意识形态因素(伊斯兰和/或萨拉菲斯特态度)和宗教知识以及影响个人的外部因素。已经开发并测试了针对这些特征的评估工具。-作为第一项研究的一部分，将招募一批年轻的穆斯林囚犯(N=150人)进行反复调查，以评估上述特征。这项研究侧重于变量之间的联系，并试图比较两个时间点对拘留开始和结束时监狱条件的评估。-在第二项研究中，除调查外，还将对被贴上伊斯兰煽动者标签的囚犯或即将成为伊斯兰煽动者的囚犯(在巴伐利亚州和其他联邦州的监狱中被确认)进行访谈(N=40)。目标是找出激进主义的个别模式。监狱官员提供的信息和监狱档案中的意见将丰富这方面的信息。根据这些定性分析和所有现有信息的汇总，将就个人发展模式和伊斯兰激进化的因果过程对数据进行分析。这两项研究提供的数据可能有助于指导在监狱环境中采取有效的预防措施。同时，将开发一种评估工具，能够衡量囚犯的激进化程度以及他或她实施恐怖袭击的潜在危险或暴力可能性。

In the light of a global increase in the number of violent acts of extremism, this project inquires how prevalent sets of attitudes conducive to radicalization are among young adult prisoners and how such attitudes may be mediated by the German prison system. There is a need for criminological research that could provide guidelines for identifying trends to radicalism during the course of imprisonment and for effectively preventing their consolidation. To date however, little is known about underlying mechanisms and relevant factors in the context of radicalization. Similarly, empirical findings about the extent of associated risk potentials within prison settings are lacking. The project therefore aims to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the prevalence of risk criteria that are indicative of individual radicalization processes or may account for their formation based on the model of Kruglanski (2014). Such risk criteria are: biographical characteristics, personal variables, ideological factors (Islamist and/or Salafist attitudes) and religious knowledge as well as external factors influencing the individual. Assessment instruments for those characteristics have been developed and tested. - As part of the first study a sample of young Muslim prisoners (N = 150) will be recruited for a repeated survey to assess those characteristics mentioned above. This study focuses on the association of the variables among them and tries to compare the assessments of the two time points also with regard to the conditions in the prison at the beginning and the end of the detention. - In the second study prisoners who were labeled as a Islamist agitators or who are being on their way to become an Islamist agitator (identified in Bavarian and in prisons in other federal states) will be interviewed (N = 40) in addition to the surveys. The goal is to identify individual patterns of radicalization. This information will be enriched by information given by the prison officers and through observations from prison files. Based on these qualitative analyses and the aggregation of all available information the data will be analyzed with regard to individual developmental patterns and with regard to causal processes of Islamist radicalization. The data provided by both studies may help to provide guidance for initiating effective prevention measures in prison settings. At the same time an assessment instrument will be developed that is able to measure the degree of radicalization of a prisoner and his or her resulting potential hazards or violent potentials for committing a terrorist attack.