The 2004 Deregulation of Germanys Crafts and Trades: Its Consequences for Skills, Careers and Firms

我们提出的项目研究的后果，2004年改革的德国工艺品代码（Handwerksordnung）。这一改革减少了以获得工匠大师文凭为开业先决条件的手工艺种类，从94种减少到41种。在其他53个行业中，工匠硕士文凭是可选的，但自2004年以来不再要求。改革为分析德国曾经高度管制的手工业如何适应放松管制提供了独特的机会。在重点关注对就业和工资影响的初步工作的基础上，我们拟议的项目重点关注企业方面的调整过程：技能要求、职业和技能构成、产出结构、技术、价格和企业结构的变化。为了解决这些问题，我们采取了一种跨学科的方法，结合了经济学和社会学的观点;这两种观点都需要全面了解德国手工业和贸易部门的改革。因此，我们的跨学科项目团队将为网络内的跨学科对话做出贡献并从中受益。实证分析依赖于我们在2016年12月CADAL项目中要求的社会保障记录中的工厂级数据;以及制造业工厂的面板。我们的主要计量经济学战略将结合联合收割机匹配与事件研究方法，比较职业发展，企业结构，产品组合和价格在自由化的工艺与那些类似的工艺，进入壁垒仍然在2004年后。我们的识别假设是，在自由化行业中没有或只有很少员工的控制工厂，对于在自由化工艺中有相当大比例的工匠的工厂来说，形成了一个有效的反事实。我们可以通过比较改革前几年的两种类型的工厂来部分评估这一假设的合理性：如果识别策略是有效的，治疗和匹配的控制职业应该在改革前经历类似的经济和人口特征趋势。首先，它揭示了职业准入要求及其取消如何改变职业，技能要求和手工艺和贸易部门的公司。其次，它侧重于劳动力需求方面的调整，这在有关许可的文献中并不是重点。更好地理解调整过程也提供了重要的见解，企业和劳动力市场如何应对放松管制，谁受益，谁从这样的政策损失。最后，我们的研究具有直接的政策含义。拟议项目的结果将使人们能够对改革进行全面评估，从而回答是否应该按照垄断委员会的建议，使更多的手工业和贸易自由化的问题。

Our proposed project studies the consequences of the 2004 reform of the German Crafts Code (Handwerksordnung). This reform reduced the number of crafts in which a Master craftsman diploma was a prerequisite for opening up a business, from 94 to 41. In the other 53 trades, a Master craftsman diploma has been optional, but not required since 2004. The reform provides the unique opportunity to analyze how the once highly regulated crafts sector in Germany adjusts to the deregulation. Building on preliminary work which focused on the effects on employment and wages, our proposed project focuses on adjustment processes at the firm side: changes in skill requirements, occupational and skill composition, output mix, technology, prices and firm structure. To tackle these questions, we pursue an interdisciplinary approach combining the perspectives from economics and sociology; both perspectives are required to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the reform in the German crafts and trades sector. As such, our interdisciplinary project team would contribute and benefit to the interdisciplinary dialogue within the network.The empirical analysis relies on plant-level data from the social security records which we requested within the CADAL project in December 2016; and a panel of plants in the manufacturing sector. Our main econometric strategy will combine matching with an event study approach to compare the development of careers, firm structure, product mix and prices in the liberalized crafts to those of similar crafts in which entry barriers remained in place after 2004. Our identifying assumption is that control plants with no or few employees in the liberalized trades form a valid counterfactual for plants with a sizeable share of tradesmen in the liberalized crafts. We can partially assess the plausibility of this assumption by comparing the two types of plants in the pre-reform years: If the identification strategy is valid, treatment and matched control occupations should experience similar trends in key economic and demographic characteristics prior to the reform.Our proposed research is important for at least three reasons. First, it sheds light on how occupational entry requirements and their elimination change careers, skill requirements and firms in the crafts and trades sector. Second, it focuses on adjustments on the labor demand side which has not been the focus in the literature on licensing. A better understanding of the adjustment processes also provides important insights how firms and labor markets respond to deregulation; and who benefits and loses from such a policy. Finally, our research has direct policy implications. The results from the proposed project will allow a comprehensive evaluation of the reform and hence, an answer to the question whether additional crafts and trades should be liberalized - as proposed by the Monopoly Commission.