How Does Reducing the Intensity of Tracking Affect Student Achievement and Equity? Evidence from German State Reforms

跟踪，即按能力将学生分成学习小组，可能有许多好处。教学、课程、班级规模和其他学校投入可以针对更同质的群体进行调整，从而优化学习。然而，在欧洲，学生被跟踪到不同类型的学校，关于跟踪的积极影响的经验证据是难以捉摸的。对斯堪的纳维亚半岛取消跟踪改革的跨国证据和评估表明，跟踪几乎不会影响学生成绩的平均水平，但会增加不平等。德国是一个早期（10岁）和密集（3+学校类型）跟踪的国家，根据比萨分数，不平等程度相对较高。虽然推迟首次跟踪的年龄在政治上很难，但巴登-符腾堡、巴伐利亚、柏林、不莱梅、汉堡、莱茵兰-腭骨的和石勒苏益格-荷尔斯泰因等七个州在2006/07年至2011/12年期间实施了改革，降低了跟踪的强度。这些改革要么减少了现有学校轨道的数量，要么升级了最低轨道，使其提供中等轨道学校学位。该项目旨在确定德国学校系统减少对学生成绩水平和公平的跟踪力度的影响。我们利用德国七个州的去跟踪改革的差异中的差异的方法。对于我们的主要分析，我们使用国家教育小组研究（NEPS）的两个队列：起始队列（SC）3（5年级）和SC 4（9年级）。通过比较学生的成绩，当两个队列是在9日和10日年级，NEPS数据提供了一个独特的机会，研究学生的能力之前和之后的改革。通过比较七个改革州的SC 4（改革前）和SC 3（改革后）学生成绩的差异与九个非改革州的相应差异，确定了改革效果。我们将分析对学生成绩分数的影响，10年级的成绩，中学学位和年级重复，以及学生的社会经济背景的异质性影响。在深入分析中，将使用德国统计局和其他成绩测试的行政数据，在实施改革之前测试共同趋势。丰富的NEPS数据允许研究学校投入，同龄人群体，教师队伍，轨道选择和私人辅导的变化，作为改革效果的可能渠道。最后，该项目将调查从学校到工作的过渡，作为脱轨改革的长期影响。

Tracking, i.e. the sorting of students by ability into groups of learning, potentially has many advantages. Teaching, curriculum, class size, and other school inputs can be tailored to the more homogenous groups such that learning is optimized. For Europe, however, where students are tracked into different types of school, empirical evidence on positive effects of tracking is elusive. Cross-country evidence and evaluations of de-tracking reforms in Scandinavia suggest that tracking hardly affects the average level of student achievement but increases inequality. Germany is a country with early (at age 10) and intensive (3+ school types) tracking with relatively high inequality according to PISA scores. While it has proven to be politically hard to postpone the age of first tracking, seven states: Baden-Wurttemberg, Bavaria, Berlin, Bremen, Hamburg, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Schleswig-Holstein, have implemented reforms between 2006/07 and 2011/12 that reduced the intensity of tracking. These reforms either reduced the number of school tracks available or upgraded the lowest track such that it offers a middle-track school degree. This project aims at identifying the effect of a reduction in the intensity of tracking on the level and equity of student outcomes in German school systems. We exploit the de-tracking reforms of the seven German states in a difference-in-differences approach. For our main analysis, we use two cohorts of the National Education Panel Study (NEPS): starting cohort (SC) 3 (5th grade) and SC 4 (9th grade). By comparing student outcomes when both cohorts are in 9th and 10th grade, the NEPS data provide a unique opportunity to study the competencies of students before and after the reforms. The reform effect is identified by comparing the difference in outcomes of students between SC 4 (pre-reform) and SC 3 (post-reform) in the seven reform states with the respective difference in the nine non-reform states. We will analyze effects on student-achievement scores, attainment of 10th grade, secondary-school degree, and grade repetition, as well as heterogeneous effects by socio-economic background of the student. In deepened analyses, administrative data from the German statistical office and from other achievement tests will be used to test for common trends before the reform implementation. The rich NEPS data allow studying changes in school inputs, peer groups, teaching staff, track choices, and private tutoring as possible channels of reform effects. Finally, the project will investigate school-to-work transitions as longer-run effects of the de-tracking reforms.