An application of long-term meteorological prediction for wheat management in northern Japan.

2010年，北海道出现了创纪录的夏季高温，冬小麦产量下降到平均年产量的65%。夏季的高温胁迫一直是北海道冬小麦产量的主要决定因素。探讨了长期气象预报在小麦经营管理中的应用。研究发现，1998 - 2013年，日本北部4月和8月的月平均气温呈显著负相关。春季较低气温和夏季较高气温的组合导致了库（籽粒数）和源（光合产物供应）的严重失衡，即库大小增大，灌浆期缩短，特别是在日照时数较低的条件下。认为库规模管理和小麦提前抽穗是应对夏季高温最重要、最有效的措施。

In 2010, a record-setting high summer temperature occurred in Hokkaido, and the yield of winter wheat was reduced to 65% of that in an average year. Summer heat stress has been a major determinant for winter wheat production in Hokkaido. We explored application of long-term meteorological prediction for wheat management. We found that monthly mean temperatures for April and August have been strongly and negatively correlated from 1998 to 2013 in northern Japan. We also found that the combination of lower spring temperatures and higher summer air temperatures lead to a severe imbalance in sink (number of grains) and source (supply of photosynthate) , that is, larger sink size and a curtailed grain-filling period, especially under lower sunshine duration condition. We consider that sink size management and earlier heading of wheat are important and most effective measures against high summer temperature.