Challenges for the Stability of the Chinese Economic Model

近年来，学术界和公众对中国的讨论越来越多地受到这样一种担忧的引导，即经济活力的下降可能导致一场重大危机。本项目以区域个案研究为基础的国别分析的形式进行这一辩论。它考察了当前的社会经济和政治挑战是否以及在多大程度上破坏了中国政府主导的经济模式。​先前的研究已经确定，关键制度领域的生产性相互作用是中国国家渗透的市场经济的基础。因此，本研究首先考察了这些制度支柱及其相互作用是否经历了根本性的转变或经历了适应性的稳定。其次，确定制度变化或稳定的原因。为了检验中国政府渗透模式的持续性假设及其相关的经济表现，我们采用了统计数据、专家访谈和进一步的中国来源。为了考虑中国经济工业化部门的区域间异质性，本文的研究范围不局限于汇总的国家数据。本文进行了三个比较案例研究，重点是高度发达的沿海省份广东（这里是深圳）、发展较晚的内陆省份湖北（这里是武汉）和结构薄弱的锈带省份辽宁（这里是沈阳）。调查时间为2010年至2018年。该研究希望对中国的政治和经济发展有新的见解，并更准确地理解实现制度稳定的过程，以及对资本主义模式的增量、路径依赖的适应。

In recent years, academic and public debates on China are increasingly guided by concerns that a declining economic dynamic could culminate in a major crisis. The present project takes up this debate in the form of a country analysis that is based on regional case studies. It examines if and to what extent current socio-economic and political challenges are destabilizing China's state-permeated economic model. In particular, it asks whether recent reforms initiated under the Xi Jinping government tend to undermine or sustain the model. Previous research has identified the productive interplay of key institutional spheres as the basis of China´s state-permeated market economy. Consequently, the research firstly investigates if these institutional pillars as well as their interaction experience radical shifts or undergo adapted stabilization. Secondly, causes for institutional change or stability are identified. In order to test the assumption of the persistence of China´s state-permeated model and its related economic performance, we employ statistical data, expert interviews and further Chinese sources. In order to take account of interregional heterogeneity in the industrialized sectors of the Chinese economy, the research scope is not limited to aggregated national data. Three comparative case studies are conducted, which focus on industrial metropolises in the highly developed coastal province of Guangdong (here: Shenzhen), in the late-developing inland province of Hubei (here: Wuhan) and the structurally weak rustbelt province of Liaoning (here: Shenyang). The period of investigation covers the years from 2010 to 2018. The study expects new insights on the political and economic development of China as well as a more accurate understanding of the processes enabling institutional stabilization and of an incremental, path-dependent adaptation of models of capitalism.