Derivation of design loads by structural reliability method

采用一阶可靠度方法(FORM)求出了周期内任意概率水平的最大响应所对应的不规则波列。结果表明，该方法在确定结构线性/非线性响应的设计荷载方面是有效的。并将该方法应用于某船S船体梁在短期海况下的累积倒塌行为。事实证明，最有可能出现的严重坍塌情况是一次极端事件，而不是一系列极端浪潮。

First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is adopted to derive irregular wave trains which yield response equivalent to the maximum response at an arbitrary probability level in a period. It is shown that the method is effective in determining the structural design loads for linear/nonlinear response. The method is also applied to the cumulative collapse behavior of a ship’ s hull girder in a short term sea state. It turned out that the most probable severe collapse scenario is the one extreme event rather than a series of extreme waves.