Renewable Penetration, Integration Costs and the Roles of the Power Grids: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Prefectures in Japan

大规模可再生能源电力市场研究进展：1.利用最优调度模型对日本2021年冬季电力市场价格进行了分析。结果表明，天然气机组在一天内的不同时段对电价的影响不成比例。天然气价格上涨导致在太阳能发电量较低的晚间高峰需求时电价较高。因此，稳定和负担得起的天然气供应对电力系统的稳定运行和电价的可负担性至关重要。利用向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析了燃料价格对电价在一天内的成本转嫁。在具有大规模可再生能源的电力系统中，剩余电力需求在一天内波动。日本区域火电供应市场属于中心-外围型市场，由于市场力量的差异，区域市场主导企业的成本转嫁能力在一天内波动。VECM的实证结果表明，在日本批发电力市场中，当可再生能源产量较高时，成本转嫁能力较弱，而当可再生能源产量较低时，成本转嫁能力较强。

Research progress on power market with large-scale renewable energy:1. Japan's winter electricity market prices in 2021 were analyzed using an optimal dispatch model. Results show that natural gas units have a disproportionate impact on electricity prices at different times within a day. Rising natural gas prices result in high electricity prices during evening peak demand when solar power output is low. Therefore, stable and affordable natural gas supply is crucial for the stable operation of the power system and affordability of electricity prices.2. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to analyze the cost pass-through of fuel prices to electricity prices within a day. In a power system with large-scale renewable energy, residual electricity demand fluctuates within a day. The Japanese regional electricity supply market for thermal power generation is a central-peripheral type of market, and the cost pass-through ability of regional market-dominant firms fluctuates within a day due to differences in market power. The empirical results of the VECM indicate that when renewable energy output is high, the cost pass-through ability is weak, whereas when renewable energy output is low, the cost pass-through ability is strong in the Japanese wholesale electricity market.