Future ArcTic Ecosystems (FATE): drivers of diversity and future scenarios from ethno-ecology, contemporary ecology and ancient DNA

由于气候变暖和人为压力的增加，北极目前正在经历一些全球最剧烈的生态系统变化，这对生物保护及其居民具有重要意义。北极和亚北极土著社区的生计与环境密切相关，直接依赖大型食草动物的放牧和狩猎，他们将不得不适应气候变暖和植被变化的影响。建立相关的情景需要了解气候、食草动物和增加的人为压力作为大规模驱动因素以及与社区相关的地方尺度的相对作用。我们将利用沉积的古代DNA、当前的生态观察和对土著人民的知识和解释进行人类学调查，进行全面的跨学科和跨学科研究。我们会的。利用沉积物岩心中的植物、哺乳动物和真菌的DNA，在大的空间（环北极）和时间（末次冰期极大期至今）尺度上确定当地生物多样性的变化和植被的变化。通过比较当代和过去在环北极空间尺度上的草食、人为影响和气候变化的影响，确定近期和历史生物多样性变化的驱动因素，并将其整合到气候生态位模型中，以预测未来的变化。3 .记录土著和地方知识（ILK）对生物多样性变化及其驱动因素的认识，以及社会实践/人类选择在形成和适应四个独立北极地区变化中的作用。在与本地涉众的迭代过程中，基于1-3的结果构建场景。我们的研究将把当地社区的观点和整个项目的科学数据收集结合起来。这将使我们能够调查生态系统的变化，并建立与利益相关者直接相关的生物多样性和生态系统服务转变的情景。

The Arctic is currently experiencing some of the globally most dramatic ecosystem changes due to climate warming and increased anthropogenic pressure, with important implications for biological conservation and its inhabitants. Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities, whose livelihoods are closely linked to their environment and who directly depend on the herding and hunting of large herbivores, will have to adapt to the effects of climate warming and vegetation changes. Building relevant scenarios requires understanding the relative roles of climate, herbivory and increased anthropogenic pressures as large-scale drivers as well as on local scales relevant to the communities.We will conduct a comprehensive inter- and transdisciplinary study using sedimentary ancient DNA, current ecological observations and anthropological investigations of indigenous peoples’ knowledge and interpretations. We will 1. use DNA of plants, mammals and fungi from sediment cores to identify local biodiversity changes and vegetation shifts over large spatial (circumarctic) and temporal (Last Glacial Maximum until today) scale.2. identify drivers of recent and historic biodiversity changes by comparing contemporary and past effects of herbivory, anthropogenic impacts and climate change on a circumarctic spatial scale and integrate them in climatic niche models to forecast future changes.3. chronicle indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) of biodiversity changes and their drivers, and of the role of societal practices/human choices in shaping and adapting to changes in four separate Arctic areas.4. build scenarios based on the outcomes of 1-3 in an iterative process with local stakeholders.Our study will bring together the perspectives of local communities and scientific data acquisition throughout the project. This will allow us to investigate ecosystem shifts and build scenarios of transformations of biodiversity and ecosystem services that are of immediate stakeholder relevance.