Escalation of distributional conflict: Onset, dynamics, and group interactions

关于资源分配的冲突到处都存在：有时以武装冲突的形式发生，有时以非暴力争端的形式发生，有时分配冲突可以通过相互协议解决，而不需要作出重大努力。但是，是什么因素导致资源分配分歧不断累积、升级，最终演变成公开冲突，无法达成和平的资源分配决定呢？本研究项目的重点是分配冲突的动态和冲突发生和升级的原因。应分析两组主要问题：(i)关于群体动力和群体认同对冲突升级的作用；（ii）动态冲突博弈的信息方面，以及预期分配冲突时的战略行为，这可能有利于冲突升级或冲突解决。该项目将通过将冲突理论研究与实证分析紧密结合，推动冲突经济学领域的发展。关于竞争的经济学文献通常把竞争的出现看作是既定的，而不是沿着广泛的边际分析冲突升级的原因。此外，参赛者通常被建模为单一的演员，从对手内部的互动中抽象出来，如群体动态、战略关注或“观众效应”。例如，在群体而不是个人决定发起或解决公开冲突并跨（种族或社会）群体合作的情况下，竞赛出现的原因尚未得到系统研究。项目区域(i)将明确地关注这样的组交互。此外，不完整信息的各个方面可能会引起有趣的冲突投资动态，例如，由信念更新引起的冲突投资。这些在文献中很少受到关注，但可以帮助解释实际的冲突行为和意愿，因此，是项目领域（ii）的重点。相应的研究问题集涉及理论以及实证和实验工作。对群体互动和分配冲突的动态方面的系统分析将有助于理解当前的主要政策问题，如宏观层面的种族或政治冲突和微观层面的基于身份的歧视和冲突。调查结果将为评估赞成缓和冲突和解决冲突的机构提供基础。

Conflicts about the distribution of resources are present everywhere: sometimes they take place in the form of an armed conflict, sometimes as non-violent disputes, at other times distributional conflict can be solved by mutual agreement without major effort. But which factors cause a disagreement about the distribution of resources to build up, escalate and end up in open conflict and an impossibility to reach a peaceful resource allocation decision? The key focus of this research project is on the dynamics of distributional conflict and reasons for the onset and escalation of conflict. Two main sets of questions should be analyzed: (i) On the role of group dynamics and group identity for conflict escalation; and (ii) on informational aspects of dynamic conflict games as well as strategic behavior in the anticipation of distributional conflict, which may favor conflict escalation or its resolution. The project will advance the field of the economics of conflict by closely combining studies on the theory of conflict with empirical analyses. The economic literature on contests typically takes the emergence of a contest as given, rather than analyzing reasons for an escalation of conflict along the extensive margin. Moreover, the contestants are often modeled as unitary actors, abstracting from interactions within the adversary sides such as group dynamics, strategic concerns or "audience effects." For instance, reasons for the emergence of a contest have not yet been systematically studied for situations in which groups instead of individuals take the decision to initiate or resolve an open conflict and to cooperate across (ethnic or social) groups. Project area (i) will explicitly focus on such group interactions. Moreover, aspects of incomplete information can cause interesting dynamics of conflict investments caused by belief updating, for instance. These have received little attention in the literature but can help explain actual conflict behavior and will, thus, be the focus of project area (ii). The corresponding sets of research questions involve theoretical as well as empirical and experimental work. The systematic analyses of group interactions and dynamic aspects of distributional conflict will help understand major current policy problems such as ethnic or political conflict at the macro level and identity-based discrimination and conflict at the micro level. The findings will provide a basis for the assessment of institutions that favor de-escalation and conflict resolution.