Values and Economic Performance: A formalised agent-based model

这个项目的目的是开发一个基于代理的计算机模拟模型，表示文化、制度、价值观和经济绩效之间的关系，并解释这种关系如何随着时间的推移而变化。这一模型将被用来解释为什么各国在经济表现和财富方面存在长期差异。尽管有许多政治努力来促进经济发展，但国家之间的趋同是缓慢的。在欧盟内部也是如此，东部和一些南部国家仍然比核心国家贫穷得多。到目前为止，还不存在结合上述几个方面的正式经济模型。如果不考虑制度和文化，就无法理解各国的长期经济表现，这一点从许多实证论文中可见一斑。经济学的理论研究要么关注制度的作用，要么关注文化的作用，而不是两者兼而有之，而忽视了价值。然而，文化和制度是相互依存的，应该共同考虑。我们的目标是统一经济学、社会学和社会心理学中的不同文献。在关于这些主题的文献中，很少有正式的建模。形式建模是可取的，因为它有助于澄清对类似概念的准确解释，并允许预测如果某些因素发生变化可能会发生什么。我们的方法是创新的，因为它使用了其他社会科学的见解，并将其翻译成经济学语言。我们的模型使用了三个构建块。第一个组成部分是经济网络中的公共产品博弈。链接在网络中的代理通过组合不同的技能和努力来产生联合输出。在社会学文献的第二个组成部分中，我们将社会资本解释为个人在网络中的联系。网络的结构可以与决定代理人互动的正式和非正式机构有关。最后，我们通过社会心理学中的施瓦茨人类价值理论将文化融入其中，以解释网络是如何变化的，以及代理人为什么合作。我们假设共享价值观的代理更有可能在网络中建立链接。从长远来看，价值观可能会随着合作的结果而改变。德国和波兰研究人员之间的合作对该项目的成功至关重要。在将相关社会心理学理论和人类主体行为整合到正式经济模型中方面，德国团队拥有丰富的经验。波兰团队在社会资本理论的经济建模和经验数据的计量经济学分析方面有经验。这两个团队在基于代理的计算机模拟模型的开发和统计分析方面都有深厚的知识。德国-波兰的视角使我们能够根据两国巨大的文化和经济差异来开发和使用这一模式。

The aim of this project is to develop an agent-based computer simulation model that represents the relation between culture, institutions, values and economic performance, and explains how this relation changes over time. This model will be used to explain why there are long-lasting differences in economic performance and wealth between countries. Despite many political efforts to foster economic development, convergence between countries is slow. This is also true within the European Union, where the Eastern and some Southern countries are still significantly poorer than the core. A formal economic model that combines the mentioned aspects does not exist so far. The long-run economic performance of countries cannot be understood without taking institutions and culture into account, which is shown by many empirical papers. Theoretical studies in economics focus either on the role of institutions or of culture, but not both, and values are neglected. However, culture and institutions are interdependent and should be considered jointly. We aim at unifying separate strands of literature in economics, sociology and social psychology. There is little formal modelling in the literature on these topics. Formal modelling is desirable, because it helps to clarify the precise interpretation of similar concepts and it allows to make predictions what might happen if some factors change. Our approach is innovative, because it uses insights from other social sciences and translates them in the language of economics. Our model uses three building blocks. The first component consists of public goods games in economic networks. Agents that are linked in a network produce a joint output by combining different skills and effort. In the second building block from the sociological literature, we interpret social capital as the connections of individuals within a network. The structure of the network can be related to formal and informal institutions that determine the interaction of the agents. Finally, we incorporate culture via the Schwartz theory of human values from social psychology in order to explain how networks change and why agents cooperate. We assume that agents that share values are more likely to establish links in a network. In the long run, values can change in response to the outcomes of the cooperation. The collaboration between the German and Polish researchers is crucial for the success of the project. The German team has strong experience in integrating the relevant social psychological theory and human subject behaviour in formal economic models. The Polish team has experience with the economic modelling of social capital theory and econometric analysis of empirical data. Both teams have a profound knowledge in the development and statistical analysis of agent-based computer simulation models. The German-Polish perspective allows us to develop and use the model based on the significant cultural and economic differences in both countries.