Analysis of Hollowing out in the Economies of US and Japan : CGE Model with Domestic Investment, Direct Investment, and International Trade

1.与美国的情况类似，日本经济的空心化成为普遍的政策问题。本研究的目的是实证分析日本通过对亚洲各国的直接投资进行结构调整后，制造业比重的相对或绝对下降。通过对国际贸易、直接投资和日本产业的详细数据进行分析，发现日本产业结构调整的原因.本论文的主要内容如下：（1）从日本企业的全球贸易和投资活动看日本经济在国际分工中的地位。(2)随着直接投资和产业内贸易的扩大，日本与东盟各国之间的垂直分工（生产工序分工）也在扩大。(3)考虑到日本经济的空洞化，评估亚太经合组织、东盟和北美自由贸易协定等区域经济一体化的替代方案。主要R ...更多信息 结果如下。(1)在亚洲发展中国家与发达国家的产业内贸易中，高新技术和劳动密集型技术制造业产品的比重不断上升。(2)为了避免经济空洞化，日本必须提高技术和知识密集型产品和工序的竞争力，并在产业内贸易中将这些产品或工序的一部分作为出口。这也增加了日本作为美国和亚洲之间调解人的作用。(3)日本可以通过放松管制或增加市场竞争来提高某些服务业的竞争力。这可以增加在国外的活动和直接投资，以减轻日本经济空心化的压力。(4)亚太地区存在多种区域一体化模式，这些模式各有其发展的路径，对日本经济的发展也有一定的促进作用.我们的一些论文在泰国、韩国、香港和美国的国际会议上被报道。CGE模型的输出仍然不足以满足我们的分析目的，因此我们更多地依赖于国际贸易、直接投资和行业数据。少

1. Similar to the case in US,the hollowing out of the Japanese economy becomes prevalent policy issue. The purpose of this research is to analyze empirically the relative or absolute decrease in the weight of manufacturing industry in Japan, after the structural adjustments through direct investment from Japan to Asian countries. We investigated the detail data of international trade, direct investment, and Japanese industry to find structural adjustment of Japanese industry.2. The following topics are foucused(1) A position of Japanese economy in the international division of labor, following the global activities of Japanese firms of trades and investments.(2) A vertical division of labor (division of labor of production processes) between Japan and ASEAN countries, following expansion of direct investments and intra-industry trade.(3) Evaluate alternative regional economic integration, such as APEC,ASEAN,and NAFTA,take into account the hollowing out of Japanese economy.3. The main r … More esults, which we got, are as follows.(1) Manufacturing products with high-tech and labor intensive technology are increasing in an intra-industry trade between Asian developing countries and developed countries.(2) To avoid a hollowing out of economy, Japan must increase competitiveness of technology and knowledge intensive products and processes and take parts of those products or processes as an exports in intra-industry trade. This also increase the roll of Japan as a mediator between US and Asia.(3) Japan can increase a competitiveness of some service industries through deregulation or increasing market competition. This can increase activities in foreign countries and direct investment to reduce a pressure of the hollowing out of Japanese economy.(4) There exist many types of regional integration in Asia-Pacific, and those have their own rolls for developments, and helpful for Japanese economy.4. Some of our papers are reported at the international conferences, in Thailand, Korea, Hong-Kong, and US.The output of CGE-model is still insufficient for the use of our purpose of analysis, and thus we depend more on international trade, direct investment, and industry data. Less