The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Uncertainty

该项目旨在评估第一个全球不确定性指数，以使澳大利亚政策制定者能够设计政策，有效地管理全球不确定性冲击，并限制此类冲击的衰退影响。不确定性是家庭和企业消费和投资决策的关键驱动因素，因此也是各国商业周期的关键驱动因素。全球不确定性指数将旨在确定全球不确定性作为澳大利亚商业周期波动的驱动因素的作用，了解这一角色在最近几个历史时期是否因全球化而变得更加相关，并了解全球不确定性的波动对经济衰退的影响是否更严重。该项目的预期结果是为政策制定者提供关键意见，以设计能够限制衰退严重程度并提振澳大利亚经济增长的政策。

This project aims to estimate the first global uncertainty index to enable Australian policymakers to design policies to efficiently manage global uncertainty shocks and limit the recessionary effects of such shocks. Uncertainty is a crucial driver of household and business consumption and investment decisions and, therefore, countries' business cycles. A global uncertainty index would aim to identify the role of global uncertainty as a driver of Australia's business cycle fluctuations, to understand if this role has become more relevant in recent historical periods due to globalisation, and to understand if the effects of fluctuations in global uncertainty have been more severe in economic recessions. The intended outcome of the project is to provide policy-makers with key inputs to design policies able to limit the severity of recessions and lift Australia's growth.