Residential house prices

在这个应用程序中，我的研究团队和我提出了两个项目，调查个人住宅价格的决定因素。这两个项目都使用了一个独家数据库，该数据库涵盖了整个美国20多年来的交易。第一个项目从初步观察开始，在过去的二十年里，自住业主在出售房屋时一直实现最低的平均年化回报。相比之下，短期导向的机构投资者的表现一直优于其他群体。该项目旨在通过调查不同投资者群体的驱动因素，如地点、时间和风险概况，来确定这些模式的潜在原因。为此，我们利用重复销售和相关抵押贷款的信息，以及当地经济状况（如收入和失业）的公开时间序列。我们进一步计划使用时间序列（如抵押贷款利率）来调查投资者对宏观经济因素的敏感性。与以往只关注少数大都市地区和特定投资者群体的工作不同，该项目首次对广泛的投资者群体的表现进行了具有代表性的多维分析。因此，该项目的成果有可能为政策制定者和投资者提供有价值的见解。在第二个项目中，我和我的研究团队想要调查财产税对交易价格的影响，这在文献中迄今被忽视。房地产通常按价值征税，因此高价值房屋的所有者必须支付更高的税。然而，由于每套房屋的交易频率不高且独一无二，因此很难确定这种估计市场价值（emv），而且很可能出现错误。我们认为，这产生了两个相互抵消的渠道，通过这些渠道，emv应该影响交易价格。一方面，房屋的EMV可以作为买家和卖家的锚点，暗示着积极的影响。另一方面，高EMV会导致更高的纳税，这反过来会对房屋的价值产生负面影响。为了解决这种对立关系，我们提出了一种新的识别策略，利用纽约州财产税立法的特点，使我们能够采用差异中的差异方法。鉴于之前的文献研究了通过税率变化对房屋价值的影响，本项目的目的是调查税基（在本例中是EMV）是否也影响交易价格。该项目对所有依靠估计基本价值的财产税制度的国家都有影响，因此与德国有关，因为德国最近才通过了关于房地产按价值征税的新法律。

In this application, my research team and I propose two projects that investigate determinants of prices of individual residential homes. Both projects make use of an exclusive database that covers transactions from the entire US over more than two decades. The first project starts out with the preliminary observation that over the last two decades, owner-occupiers consistently realized the lowest average annualized returns when selling their homes. In contrast, short-term oriented institutional investors consistently outperform the other groups. This project aims to identify the underlying reasons of these patterns by investigating drivers such as location, timing, and risk-profiles of different investor groups. To do so, we make use of repeat sales and information about associated mortgages, as well as publicly available time-series on local economic conditions such as income and unemployment. We further plan to use time-series such as mortgage rates to investigate investor sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. In contrast to prior work that focuses on few, larger metropolitan areas and particular groups of investors only, this project is the first to provide a representative, multi-dimensional analysis of the performance of a broad spectrum of investor groups. The results of this project therefore have the potential to provide valuable insights for both policy makers and investors.In the second project, my research team and I want to investigate an effect of property taxation on trading prices that has so far been neglected in the literature. Real estate is usually taxed according to value, such that owners of higher-valued homes have to pay higher taxes. As each home is infrequently traded and unique, however, the determination of such estimated market values (EMVs) is difficult and errors are likely. We argue that this gives rise to two counteracting channels through which EMVs should influence trading prices. On the one hand, the EMV of a home can serve as an anchor for buyers and sellers, implying a positive effect. On the other hand, a high EMV results in higher tax payments, which should in turn affect a home’s value in negative fashion. To address this opposing relationship, we propose a novel identification strategy exploiting characteristics of New York State’s property tax legislation, enabling us to employ a Differences-in-Differences approach. Whereas prior literature investigated the effects on home values through changes in the tax rate, the purpose of this project is to investigate whether the tax base (in this case the EMV) also affects trading prices. The project has implications for all countries with a property tax system that relies on estimated base values, and is thus relevant for Germany, which only recently passed new laws on the according-to-value taxation of real estate.