MOMO-Med: Modelling mosquito vectors and disease risk in the Mediterranean area under climate and land use change

蚊媒疾病正在全球蔓延，人们对疾病进一步扩大并在地中海地区显著增加感到严重关切。拟议项目的主要目的是推进媒介分布（伊蚊和按蚊物种）和蚊媒疾病风险（登革热、基孔肯雅热、寨卡病毒、黄热病和疟疾）的建模，从而评估气候和土地利用变化条件下媒介传播疾病的风险。病媒传播的疾病对人类社会构成重大健康威胁，数百万人受到影响。越来越多的证据表明，在持续的气候变化和土地退化的情况下，上述疾病的情况将会恶化，并蔓延到地中海地区等人口稠密地区。计划中的项目有助于更好地了解与全球和区域人类社会至关重要的病媒和病原体的传播和活动的全球驱动因素和模式。未来气候变化下物种分布与传播稳定性模型的研究进展、区域气候模式模拟中土地利用动态变化对物种分布的影响评估、气候与土地利用变化下疾病风险预测等三个主要研究方向。

Mosquito-borne diseases are spreading globally and there are major concerns on further expansions yielding significant increases in the Mediterranean area. The main aim of the proposed project is to advance the modelling of vector distributions (Aedes and Anopheles species) and mosquito-borne disease risks (dengue, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever and malaria) and, thus, to assess the risk of vector-borne diseases under conditions of climate and land use change. Vector-borne diseases represent a major health threat to human societies with millions of people affected. There is increasing evidence that the situation of the considered diseases will aggravate under ongoing climate change and land degradation, spreading into densely populated regions like the Mediterranean area. The planned project contributes to an improved understanding of the global drivers and modes of the spread and activity of vectors and pathogens that are of crucial relevance to global and regional human societies. We intend to contribute to three major research fields, i.e. the advancement of the modelling of species distributions and transmission stability under future climate change, the assessment of the impact of dynamic land use changes in regional climate model simulations on species distributions, as well as the projection of disease risk under climate and land use change.