Systems Epidemiological analysis of the COVID-19 PANdemic accounting for host-virus interaction and human behavior

传染病的传播是一个多尺度和动态的过程，取决于病原体的毒力、宿主的免疫反应和人类的行为（如保持社交距离）。这些尺度的相互作用是完全理解的，而个体间的差异（生物医学和社会经济）往往被忽视。我们将研究（1）宿主-病毒相互作用对SARS-CoV-2感染的个体间差异，以及（2）健康和感染个体（及其家庭成员）在不同经济和社会相互作用中的决策过程，以确定与病毒传播和遏制相关的因素。该项目将建立一个系统的流行病学方法，考虑到生物医学和（微观）经济方面。Munich-KoCo 19队列研究框架将为多达6000名个体提供最先进的病毒学、免疫学/血清学、宿主遗传学和临床表征数据，以及有关行为和社会经济概况的信息。将使用统计和机器学习方法分析这个综合数据集。此外，我们将开发综合流行病学-经济模型，解释个体间的变异性，它们对决策的影响（例如，个体是呆在家里还是去工作，取决于收入，储蓄或其他预先存在的条件），并最终解释SARS-CoV-2流行病的动态。这些量表的整合将提供新的见解和方法，可用于其他感染和未来的流行病。

The spreading of infectious diseases is a multi-scale and dynamic process which depends on pathogen virulence, host immune responses, and human behavior (e.g. adherence to social distancing). The interplay of these scales is purely understood, and inter-individual variability (biomedical and socio-economical) often disregarded. We will study (1) inter-individual variability of host-virus interaction to SARS-CoV-2 infection and (2) decision making processes of healthy and infected individuals (and their household members) in different economic and social interactions to determine factors relevant for virus transmission versus containment. The project will establish a systems epidemiological approach considering biomedical and (micro-)economic aspects. The Munich-KoCo19 cohort study framework will provide state-of-the-art virologic, immunologic/serologic, host genetic, and clinical characterization data for up to 6000 individuals alongside information about behavior and socio-economic profiles. This comprehensive dataset will be analyzed using statistical and machine learning approaches. Furthermore, we will develop integrative epidemiological-economical models accounting for inter-individual variability, their influence on decision making (e.g. whether individuals stay-at-home or go-to-work depending on incomes, savings or other pre-existing conditions), and ultimately the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. The integration of the scales will provide novel insights and methods which can be transferred to other infections and future epidemics.