Explicit Causal Inference in Personality Research (ECIP)

因果推理是科学的中心目标。研究因果效应的首选方法是实验。然而，在人格研究中，实验往往是不道德的、不可行的，或者非常昂贵的。因此，人格研究人员很少应用实验设计来估计因果关系。在非实验研究中，因果推断也是可能的。然而，人格心理学中避免了基于非实验数据的显式因果推理，因为人们普遍认为，只有在使用实验数据时，因果推理才是可能的。因此，在人格研究中，关于因果效应和机制的知识增长往往非常缓慢，如果有的话。这是不幸的，因为缺乏对因果效应和机制的实证研究导致了经验结论和理论之间的分歧，因为理论通常关注因果效应和机制。缺乏关于因果关系的实证研究进一步限制了人格研究对政策制定者的相关性，因为关于因果关系的知识对于设计有效和有目的的政策干预、法规和法律是必要的。科学网络将促进关于因果关系的人格研究。为此，我们将详细阐述、应用和演示在人格实证研究中得出因果推理的方法。该网络将通过制定方法学/概念性指导方针和综合框架，解决人格研究中因果推断的方法学和概念性问题。此外，我们将通过撰写实证研究和授予建议，展示在人格科学中得出明确因果推断的可行方法。通过展示人格研究人员如何将因果关系有效地整合到他们的工作中，科学网络将有助于减少人格研究中理论和经验证据之间的分歧，并增加人格科学对政策制定者的相关性。

Causal inference is a central goal of science. The preferred method for studying causal effects are experiments. Yet, experiments are often unethical, unfeasible, or very costly in research on personality. Personality researchers have thus rarely applied experimental designs to estimate the causal effects. Causal inference is also possible in nonexperimental studies. However, explicit causal inference on the basis of nonexperimental data has been avoided in personality psychology due to the widespread belief that causal inference is only possible when experimental data are used. Hence, knowledge about causal effects and mechanisms tends to grow at a very slow pace, if at all, in research on personality. This is unfortunate because the shortage of empirical research on causal effects and mechanisms entails a divergence between empirical findings and theories given that theories are usually concerned with causal effects and mechanisms. The shortage of empirical research on causal effects furthermore limits the relevance of personality research for policymakers because knowledge about causal effects is necessary for designing effective and purposive policy interventions, regulations, and laws. The scientific network will promote personality research on causal effects. To do so, we will elaborate on, apply, and demonstrate methods for drawing causal inferences in empirical research on personality. The network will address methodological and conceptual issues surrounding causal inference in personality research by developing methodological/conceptual guidelines and an integrative framework. Furthermore, we will showcase feasible ways to draw explicit causal inferences in personality science by composing empirical studies and grant proposals. By demonstrating how personality researchers can effectively integrate causality into their work, the scientific network will help to reduce the divergence between theory and empirical evidence in research on personality and increase the relevance of personality science for policymakers.