A mathematical analysis on the dependence of extinction probability on life history characteristics in plant populations

我们监测的命运（生长，生存和死亡）的个人的四个林地草本植物种不同的生活史在其永久地块。我们还进行了一项研究，以测量结果和/或种子设置在每个物种在结果期，并收集有关繁殖力的信息。在此基础上，对北海道十胜地区不同大小的破碎化森林从边缘到内部的光照强度和土壤水分进行了测定，评价了自然环境梯度对延龄草种群的影响。这是估计生活史参数变化对种群增长率影响的量。提交了两篇关于研究结果的论文，并被学术期刊接受（见背面的“参考文献”）。我们还对已经获得的普查数据进行了统计分析，以便在模拟程序中使用，以计算种群的灭绝概率。从而得出了各物种生殖力与死亡率的相关性，以及种子繁殖与营养繁殖的依赖率。利用这些结果，我们构建了一个模拟程序来计算100年后种群的灭绝概率。计算结果已发表在英文论文中，并已提交给学术期刊，目前正在评审中。

We have monitored the fate (growth, survival and death) of individuals of four woodland herbaceous species with different life histories in their permanent plots. We also conducted a research to measure fruit and/or seed set in each species at the fruiting period and collected the information on fecundity. Furthermore, as for Trillium camschatcense, we measured the light intensity and soil moisture from the edge to inside of fragmented forests with various sizes in Tokachi area of Hokkaido, and evaluated the effect of the gradient of physical environment on Trillium camschatcense population.In theoretical analysis, we explored a method to evaluate the sensitivity and elasticity of population growth rate in density-dependent matrix model, which is the quantities to estimate the effect of the change of life history parameters on population growth rate. Two papers on the results are submitted and accepted in academic journals (see `References` on back page). We also conducted a statistical analysis of the census data already obtained in order to employ in simulation programs to calculate extinction probability of populations. Consequently, we obtained the correlation between fecundity and mortality rate, and the dependence rate of seed reproduction and vegetative reproduction in each species. Utilizing those obtained results, we constructed a simulation program to calculate the extinction probability of populations after 100 years. The calculated results are written in the English papers and they are submitted to academic journal and in review now.