A study on a farmland use accumulation factor by the supply and demand model considering stochastic choice

(1)问卷调查我们在农林渔业部负责人和地方政府的配合下，对稻农进行了问卷调查，获得了对一次稻田租赁交易的反应数据。此外，通过这次调查还获得了农田和灌溉设施的数据。在问卷调查中，考虑了匿名性对个人信息的保护。(2)租赁交易模型估计：基于随机选择模型，建立了农户将稻田出租给他人和从他人那里租赁的反应函数，并利用问卷数据进行了估计。在此基础上，建立了决定供需平衡点的租金和租赁协议水平的模型，并进行了仿真分析。(3)影响因素的说明本研究通过模拟确定了公共项目对稻田租金和租赁协议水平的影响因素，如公共项目对稻田的整合、避租、稻价和工资的社会经济变量的变化以及稻田的地理条件。(4)通过比较实际租赁交易的数据和模拟的结果，验证了该模型的适用性。此外，通过该模拟对稻田整理项目的效果进行了定量评估，并量化了日本租赁市场的经济损失。(5)分析结果的发表在国际会议上进行了讨论，并以论文形式发表在学术期刊上。

(1)Questionnaire surveyWe conducted questionnaire survey about rice farmers with cooperation of person in charge of the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fishery and local governments to get reaction data on a paddy-field rental transaction. In addition, the data on farmland and irrigation facilities were obtained by this survey. In questionnaire survey, anonymity was considered for protection of personal information.(2)Estimation of rental transaction modelReaction functions of farmers, who want to rent paddy-fields to others and to be rented from others, were formulated based on a stochastic choice model, and those functions were estimated by questionnaire data. Furthermore, the model which decides a rent and rental agreement level at the supply and demand balance point was built, and used for simulation analysis.(3)Elucidation of an influence factorThis study specified influence factors on rental rates and rental agreement level by simulations, such as consolidation of paddy-fields by the public projects, renting evasion, changes in social and economic variable of rice price and wages, and geographical condition of paddy fields.(4)ApplicabilityApplicability of this model was examined by comparing data in real rental transactions with a result of simulation. In addition, an effect of paddy-fields consolidation projects was evaluated quantitatively by this simulation, and an economic loss in a Japanese rental market was quantified.(5)Publication of resultResults of this analysis were discussed in the international conferences, and published as articles in academic journals.