Wide-area Earthquake Disaster Management Using Empirical Estimation Model of Post-Earthquake Lifeline Functions

本研究旨在利用震后生命线功能的经验估算模型，为大范围地震灾害管理提供支持。首先，对制造业的损害影响进行了广域评估。基于ATC-25提出的生命线重要性因子，结合8种生命线中断模式的概率估计模型，对3种生命线（电力、自来水和城市燃气供应）8种中断模式下的制造业生产水平进行了量化。将预期东海地震的地震烈度分布图与从事制造业的人口分布图重叠，以评估人口暴露的影响。根据日生产价格估算了各类厂商的生产水平。研究结果对地震灾害经济影响的宏观评估和大范围的管理具有一定的参考价值 ...更多信息 从微观上看，制造商的供应链管理是现代商业环境中必不可少的实践。制造商的供应链设计良好，在正常运作中有效运作。然而，其结构在自然和/或人为灾害造成生产流意外中断的情况下具有高度脆弱性。在这项研究中，系统动力学模型的供应链，提出了描述其详细的机制，生产流程，并评估潜在的干扰和由此产生的直接/间接损失的影响。该模型能够考虑生产设施的物理损坏、公用事业生命线功能的丧失、运输措施的丧失等不利影响，并可以比较缓解措施的效果;它们是改善设施的地震脆弱性，增加库存，安装备用设备，该模型可用于企业业务连续性计划的编制和供应链的广域管理。少

This study aims to support wide-area earthquake disaster management using empirical estimation model of post-earthquake lifeline functions. First, wide-area assessment of damage impact on manufacturing sector was performed. On the basis of lifeline importance factors proposed by ATC-25, production levels of manufacturing sector were quantified for eight patterns of disruption of three kinds of utility lifelines (electricity, water, and city gas supply), which is combined with probabilistic estimation model of eight patterns of lifeline disruptions. A distribution map of seismic intensity of the anticipated Tokai earthquake and that of population engaged in manufacturing sector were overlaid with each other to evaluate the impact in terms of population exposure. Production levels of various kinds of manufacturers were estimated in terms of daily production price. The results would be beneficial for macroscopic assessment of economic impact of earthquake disaster and its wide-area manage … More ment for manufacturing sector.From microscopic point of view, manufacturer's supply chain management is essential practice in the modern business environment. Manufacturer's supply chain is well designed to work effectively in a normal operation. However, its structure involves high vulnerability in the event of unexpected disruption of production flow caused by natural and/or man-made disaster. In this study, a system dynamics model of a supply chain is proposed to describe its detailed mechanism of production flow and to evaluate the effect of potential disturbance and resultant direct/indirect loss. The proposed model is capable to consider such adverse effects as physical damage to production facilities, loss of utility lifeline functions, loss of transportation measures, etc. The effect of mitigation measures can be compared as well ; they are improvement of seismic fragility of facilities, enhancement of stocks, installation of back-ups equipment, etc. The proposed model can be used to facilitate preparation of BCP (Business Continuity Plan) and wide-area management of supply chain. Less