Macroeconomic Policy during a Deflation Era : A Research on Effectiveness of Inflation Target Policies

本研究报告的研究结果分为三章，每章报告与通胀目标制实施有关的不同方面。以下是各章的摘要。第一章研究了通货膨胀目标制的理论模型。该模型的一个新特征，即对模型参数的期望的形成，表明了以下结果。(1)对政策的“承诺”产生的最优均衡是与巴罗-戈登均衡等价的唯一均衡(2)本章最重要的结果之一是指出了当政策是自由裁量时的两种均衡。第一种称为“主动”平衡，第二种称为“被动”平衡。在正式的情况下，通货紧缩可能是由货币政策引起的。(3)在“被动”货币政策下，存在恶性通货膨胀的可能性；(4)如果经济的不稳定不是由于当局的激进产出政策，而是由于经济中的随机干扰，那么被动货币政策比主动货币政策更可取。(5)通货膨胀目标制政策在经济处于被动均衡的情况下是成功的；然而;如果政策在通货紧缩盛行的地方实施，那么政策很可能会失败。这是因为均衡是不稳定的。(6)如果当局选择稳定产出的政策，它会相对于公众的期望过度行动。以下两章的主题是评估通胀目标制政策实施的各个方面。在第二章中，为了评估政策响应函数，对估计中的主要数据进行了仔细的检查。特别审查了国内总产值、活期存款利率、非耐用品和服务消费以及有效汇率的可变序列，以确定是否存在趋势。经过检验，本文将三种非结构性趋势性测度方法应用于GDP序列。政策响应函数的实际估计有待后续的研究。第三章对自然利率的概念进行了概述。自然利率对应于自然失业率，政策当局将使用基准来评估其经济的当前状况。少

This research reports the results in three chapter research report In each chapter different aspects related to the implementation of the inflation targeting is reported. The summary of the chapters are followings.In the first chapter, the theoretical model for the inflation targeting is reported. A novel feature of the model, formation of expectations about the parameters of the model, indicated the following results.(1) Optimal equilibrium resulting from the "commitment' to the policy is the unique one which is equivalent to that of Barro-Gordon(2) One of the most important results from this chapter is indicating the two equilibriums when the policy is discretionary. The first one is called "active" equilibrium and the second one is called "passive" equilibrium. Under the formal one, deflation may be caused by the monetary policy.(3) Under the "passive" discretionary monetary policy, there is a possibility of hyper-inflation; however, this does not happen unless the policy authority … More aims at the above-natural rate of output(4) If an instability of the economy is not because of the aggressive output policy of the authority, but because of the stochastic disturbances in the economy, the passive monetary policy is preferable to the active monetary policy.(5) Inflation targeting policy will result in success if the economy is under inflation in passive equilibrium; however; the policy will likely to fail if the policy is active where deflation is prevalent This is because that the equilibria are instable.(6) If the authority chooses to the output stabilizing policy, it will over act relative to the public's expectations.The main themes of the following two chapters are to estimate the various aspects of implementations of the inflation targeting policy. In the second chapter, to evaluate the policy response function, the major data in estimation is carefully examined. Particularly, variable series of GDP, call rate, consumption of non-durables and services and effective exchange rate are examined for the presence of trends. After the examination, three methods of non-structural measure of detrending are applied to the GDP series. Actual estimation of a policy response function is remained for the successive researches. In the third chapte4 the conceptual aspect of the natural rate of interest is summarized. The natural rate of interest rate corresponds to the natural rate of unemployment and policy authority would use a benchmark to evaluate the current status of her economy. Less