Optimism, Pessimism and Confidence - Their economic impacts

在对不确定性进行建模时，经济学家通常假设人们利用行为良好且精确的概率。由于大多数人对恐怖行为、感染SARS或极端市场波动的可能性只有最模糊的概念，这限制了标准模型在预测或指导选择方面的有用性。这个项目旨在将一套更丰富的关于不确定性的态度纳入经济理论，包括对机会的不准确估计、乐观(或悲观)偏见和相对信心。这将使对非理性繁荣(恐慌)、消费者蜂拥而至和风险容忍度等主题进行更严格的分析，从而改进对相关行动或政策的收益和成本的衡量。

When modelling uncertainty, economists typically assume people utilise well-behaved and precise probabilities. As most people have only the vaguest conception of chances of terrorist acts, of contracting SARS, or of extreme market volatility, this limits usefulness of the standard model in predicting or guiding choice. This project aims to incorporate a richer set of attitudes about uncertainty into economic theory, including imprecise estimates of chance, optimistic (or pessimistic) bias, and relative confidence. This will enable more rigorous analysis of topics like irrational exuberance (panic), consumer stampedes, and (in)tolerance of risk, thereby improving the measurement of benefits and costs of related actions or policies.