Study on forward prediction model of ground motion for seismlic design on the basis of wave propagation theory and source dynamics.

本研究的目的是以波传播理论和震源动力学为基础，建立地震动场预测模型，为结构体系的合理抗震设计提供理论依据。(2)抗震设计中地震动预测模型的研究。子项目(I)：已尝试确定活动断裂区，这将对评估利库镇建筑结构的地震安全性具有重要意义。这些地区是由分布在Kinki地区的许多断层上辐射的地震能量量确定的。南开海槽和卓口祖森被选为最具地震危害性和活动性的断裂带。研究了临库镇的土壤沉积结构和断裂带至基岩的地质结构。子课题(二)：为利库镇拟建建筑结构的合理抗震设计提供了地震动预报模型。为了描述精细的波传播路径和场地效应模型，对日库镇地区的土壤沉积物结构和从断裂区到地表以下基岩的地质结构进行了研究。从理论上讲，地震动用震源间的格林函数和简单的震源函数来模拟。通过对阿什格里拉谷地震动的盲法预测试验，验证了预测模型的有效性。

The objective of this research project is to present the prediction model of ground motion for reasonable seismic design of structural systems on the basis of wave propagation theory and source dynamics.This project consists of two sub-projects: (I) The study on the regional factors to specify the characteristics of ground motions which would occur in Rinku town. (II)The study on prediction model of ground motion for seismic design. Sub-project(I): It has been tried to specify the active fault areas which would be important to evaluate seismic safety of a building structure in Riku town. Those areas are determined by seismic energy quantities radiated along the many faults distributed in Kinki district. Nankai trough and Chuo Kouzousen are selected as the most seismically critical and active fault areas. The soil sediment structures in Rinku town and the geolgical structure from those fault areas to bedrock have also been investigated. Sub-project(II): It has been tried to present the prediction model of ground motion for reasonable seismic design of a building structure to be built in Riku town area. To describe the refined wave propagation path and site effect model, the soil sediment structures in Riku town area and the geological structure from fault areas to the bedrock below the ground surface have been investigated. The ground motion is theoretically modeled by the Green's function from source to site and the simple source function. The validity of the prediction model is verified through a blind prediction test for observed earthquake ground motions at Ashigra valley.