Policy Studies for Accelerated Modernization in Shanghai

这三年来，我们一直在研究完善上海加快现代化建设的政策。首先，我们建立了一个系统动力学模型，帮助我们理解政策制定过程并预测现实世界的未来。然后我们画了一张背景地图，通过它可以实现现代化的方方面面。并将模型和地图展示给上海市和浦东区的政策制定者，以观察他们改善自己的政策制定的真实政策过程。我们在那里发现，信息网络和反馈回路结构使它们在理性的基础上运行良好，而不是传统的威权主义。城市特征的变化正在显着地创造出一个新的大都市中国，它将在不久的将来汇聚所有东亚国家的经济力量。他们的政策可以通过政策科学家的仔细调查以及在那里工作的实际政策过程中得到改善。我们的研究目标是通过日本和中国调查人员的成功合作实现的。这三年来，个人计算机和电子通信在硬件和软件方面的进展对我们的合作做出了贡献。系统动力学建模和对不断变化的世界进行协作政策研究是未来进行一些学术工作的两种主要方法。我们相信，通过利用对问题本身产生过程的科学调查，将改善实际决策中的问题解决。在我们的由蒙布霍资助计划资助的国际科学研究中，关于这一主题的研究和讨论将于1997年12月底以日文和中文出版。

We have been working on a policy study for improving the accelerated modernization policy in Shanghai for these three years. First we built a system dynamics model that help us understand the policy making process and forecast the future of the real world. Then we drew an contextual map by which all aspects of the modernization can be realized in sight. And we presented the model and the map to the policy makers of Shanghai City and Pudong Ward in order to observe the real policy process of improving their policy making for themselves. There we found that the information network and the feedback loop structure are making them work well on the basis of rationality rather than traditional authoritarianism.The changing characteristics of the city are remarkably creating the new metropolis of China that will gather the economic powers from all the East Asian countries in the near future. Their policy can be improved through careful investigation by policy scientists of and in the real policy process that works there.Our research objectives are achieved through successful collaboration of Japanese and Chinese investigators. The hard- and soft-ware progress in personal computing and electronic communication for these three years have contributed to the performance of our collaboration. System dynamics modeling and collaborative policy studies of the changing world are two main methodologies to do some academic work for the future. We are confident that problem solving in the real policy making will be improved by utilizing the scientific investigation of the process that produces the problem itself.The research and discussion of the theme in our International Scientific Research aided by the Monbusho Grant-in-Aid program will be published in Japanese and Chinese by the end of December 1997.