Analyzes on Route Choice Behavior of Car Drivers and Modeling for Traffic Assignment

1.一、研究目的和内容为了提高交通分配的精度，本文在对小汽车驾驶员实际出行行为调查的基础上，首先分析了小汽车驾驶员路径选择行为和出发时间决策的影响因素。然后，我们开发了一个路径选择模型，并检查它的适用性，真实的道路网络分配。其次，基于有必要开发一个包含交通条件的日内动态和日间动态的模型的想法，在给出基本模型之后，我们通过几天的交通调查来检验交通条件下动态的真实的状态。2.研究结果研究结果如下：（1）除了传统交通分配中考虑的行程时间相关因素外，货车量、行车视野等因素也是不可忽略的。(2)影响出行出发时间的安全裕度的大小反映了指定到达时间延误损失的大小，它取决于出行目的和出行者特征等因素。(3)基于概率的随机路径选择模型的交通分配模型的拟合优度优于确定性均衡模型，但略差于基于logit的随机模型。(4)通过对几天的调查数据的分析，证实了交通状况存在逐日变化。

1.The purpose and contents of the studyIn this study, in order to improve the precision of traffic assignment, based on a survey of car drivers' actual travel behavior, we firstly analyze the influencing factors of route choice behavior and departuretime decisions. Then, we develop a route choice model and examine the applicability of it to the real road network assignment. Secondly, based on the idea that it is necessary to develop a model incorporating the within-day dynamics and day-to-day dynamics in traffic conditions, after the presentation of a basic model we examine the real states of the dynamics in traffic conditions by using traffic surveys on several days.2.The results of the studyThe results of the study are as follows :(1) In addition to the travel-time-related factors which have been used in the traditional traffic assignment, factors such as truck volumes and driving views can not be ignored.(2) The value of the safety margin which influences on the departure-time of travel reflects the magnitude of the loss of the delay in designated arrival time, and it is dependent on factors such as the trip purpose and traveler's characteristics.(3) The goodness of fit of the traffic assignment model incorporating the probit-based stochastic route choice model is better than that of the deteministic equilibrium model, but is a little worse than that of logit-based stochastic model.(4) The existence of the day-to-day variation in traffic conditions is confirmed by analyzing the data of surveys on several days.