Study on Dynamic Model of Input-output Structure and Its Application to Analysis of International Economic Collaboration

本文从构建先进技术开发体系的角度对日本经济的国际化和全球化进行了数理经济分析。实际上，我们已经在以动态规划为核心的动态优化方法上取得了方法学上的进步。因此，我们认识到引入投入产出结构动态模型的方法对分析国际经济合作是有益的。通过动态模糊环境下的动态优化问题来描述该模型。该分析基于不变嵌入原则。这项研究的相当大一部分已在1995学年执行。我们看到，通过数据库的构建和统计分析，对模型进行了鲁棒性和敏感性分析。1996学年，2。我们一直在发展一种通过随机过程来表述不确定性和模糊性的数学方法。也提出了不完全信息的贝叶斯过程，并与已经建立的结果进行了比较（Iwamoto和Nakai）。此外，我们还开发了一个具有说服力的管理系统，用于与行业相关的数据和国民经济数据，并采用图形表示系统。我们一直在整合一个适用于动态模型分析的软件（Tokinaga）。

In this study, we have implemented a mathematical economic analysis of internationalization and globalization of Japanese economy from a viewpoint of construction of advanced technology development system. In fact, we have made a methodological progress for dynamic optimization method where dynamic programming takes a central part.As a result, we have recognized that the method of introducing a dynamic model for input-output structure is useful for analysis of international economic collaboration. The model is described through dynamic optimization problem in a dynamic fuzzy environment. The analysis is based on the invariant imbedding principle.1.A rather large part of the research has been implemented for the academic year 1995. We have seen that both robustness and sensitivity analysis for the model have been implemented through a contruction of database and statistical analysis.For the acedemic year 1996,2.we have been developping a mathematical method of formulating both uncertainty and fuzziness through stochastic processes. The Baysian procedure for an imcomplete information has also been proposed and compared with results already established (Iwamoto and Nakai).3.Further we have also developped a persuasive management system for indusry-correlated data and national economics data with graphical representation systems. We have been incorpolating a software which is applicable for analysis of dynamic model (Tokinaga).