An Analysis of Economic Effects of Public Investment to Regional Economy

本文主要研究公共投资对区域经济的影响。首先，为区域经济计量模型开发了九州和福冈地区的经济数据库（其中包括一些亚洲国家的数据）。这个数据库有宏观经济数据，如收入，支出和工业部门的生产，也有该地区的人口数量，私人资本存量，公共资本存量等。维护数据库并不容易，因为几乎所有的宏观数据都经过了各个时期的修订。最新的数据是1997年的数据。在这个数据库中，我尽量保持到最新的资源。根据这些数据库，开发了一个区域（福冈地区）模型，该模型包括7个经济模块，（1）支出（名义和真实的基础），（2）价格和通货膨胀，（3）按行业划分的生产，（4）劳动，（5）收入分配，（6）人口和（7）其他部门。该模型通过GDP等指标与日本经济相联系，日本的公共投资对日本经济产生影响，并通过这一渠道对福冈地区产生影响。在区域范围内，区域公共投资对区域经济的影响主要表现在区域公共投资对区域经济的影响上。近年来，日本经济一直处于不景气状态，这些不景气的经济状况对地区经济产生了很大的影响。因此，对于模拟分析，我们应该考虑这些条件，但可用的数据是直到1996年或1997年。因此，我的研究结果是相当有限的。在模拟中，我试图预测到2010年的经济特征，估计该地区的公共投资乘数。我的初步结果表明，1990年代中期以后，这种影响有所下降。我将尝试在考虑经济制度变迁的情况下对模型进行修正，并对这些初步结果进行检验。

In this research I have focused on the economic effects of public inversment to regional Economy. Firstly I have developed the economic data base of Kysushu and Fukuoka area (though it included some data of Asian countried) for the Regional econometric model. This database have the macro economic data such as income, expenditure and production by industrial sectors and also have the number of population of the area, private capital stock, public capital stocks etc. It is not so easy to maintain the database, because almost all the macro data have revised through all the periods. The latest data are that of 1997. In this database, I have tried to maintain to the latest resource. Depending on these database, A regional (Fukuoka area) model have developed, which has 7 economic blocks, (1) Expenditure (nominal and real base), (2)Price and deflater, (3) Production by industries, (4) Labour, (5) Income distribution, (6) Population and (7) Other sectors. This model is link ed to the Japanese economy by GDP etc. The public investment in Japan effects the Japanese economy and this effects to the Fukuoka area by this channel. Within the area, the regional public investment have effect on the reginal economy. In the recent years, the Japanese economy has been in the depression and these bad economic conditions greatly effect to the reginal economy. Therefore for the simulation analysis, we should consider these conditions but the available data are until 1996 or 1997. So the results of my study is quite restricted. In the simulation, I tried to forecast the economic features till 2010 and estimate the multiplies o f public investment in this area. My tentative results show the effects have declined after mid of 1990th. I will tried to revise the model considering the change of economic systems and check these tentative results.